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Strong Plays Record
1D 7D 14D 30D |
← Oct 4 →
Wins
3
Losses
3
Win %
50%
Pending
0
⭐ Strong Plays
2026-10-04 🧠 Context → 📚 History →
Thresholds (2 of 3): H ≥ 1  ·  HR ≥ 1  ·  RBI ≥ 1  ·  K ≥ 4  ·  SB ≥ 1    Top Plays   Last 3   Last 4   Last 5
Methodology: Strong Plays surfaces player props where recent performance consistently beats the current market line. It pulls each player's last 3 game logs, compares actual stats against the best available sportsbook line, and flags plays with a meaningful edge.

Hit Rate = how many of the last 3 games the player cleared the line (e.g. 3/3 = 100%).
Edge % = hit-rate percentage minus the implied probability from the over odds. A positive edge means the player is clearing the line more often than the market expects.
Actionable plays have both a valid edge and hit rate. Elite plays require ≥ 10% edge and a perfect 3/3 hit rate.
71
Total Found
40
Shown
40
Actionable
5
Elite (10%+ Edge, 3/3)
# Action Player Active Matchup Pos vs Pitcher Stat Line Odds Score Last 3 Games Hit Rate Implied % Edge % Actual Game
1 Jackson Chourio ELITE 3/3 SD @ MIL LF
RHB vs RHP
Average 60%
ERA 3.21
Total Bases 1.5 +700 137.5 4, 3, 2
3/3
100.0%
12.5% 87.5% 1
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
2 Jackson Chourio ELITE 3/3 SD @ MIL LF
RHB vs RHP
Average 60%
ERA 3.21
Runs Batted In 0.5 +650 136.7 2, 2, 1
3/3
100.0%
13.3% 86.7% 2
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
W
3 Sean Murphy ELITE
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 ATL @ LAD C
RHB vs LHP
ERA 1.90
Total Bases 1.5 +300 125.0 4, 2, 2
3/3
100.0%
25.0% 75.0% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
4 Gavin Sheets ELITE
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 SD @ MIL DH
LHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Total Bases 1.5 +260 122.2 4, 4, 2
3/3
100.0%
27.8% 72.2% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
5 Jackson Chourio ELITE 3/3 SD @ MIL LF
RHB vs RHP
Average 60%
ERA 3.21
Hits 0.5 +240 120.6 1, 3, 2
3/3
100.0%
29.4% 70.6% 1
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
W
6 Ozzie Albies 3/3 ATL @ LAD 2B
S vs LHP
ERA 1.90
Home Runs 0.5 +1400 93.3 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
6.7% 60.0% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
7 Xander Bogaerts 3/3 SD @ MIL SS
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Total Bases 1.5 +900 90.0 1, 3, 5
2/3
66.7%
10.0% 56.7% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
8 Ozzie Albies 3/3 ATL @ LAD 2B
S vs LHP
ERA 1.90
Runs Batted In 1.5 +800 88.9 2, 2, 0
2/3
66.7%
11.1% 55.6% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
9 Gavin Sheets
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 SD @ MIL DH
LHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Home Runs 0.5 +700 87.5 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
12.5% 54.2% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
10 Jackson Merrill 3/3 SD @ MIL CF
LHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Total Bases 1.5 +575 85.2 0, 2, 2
2/3
66.7%
14.8% 51.9% 1
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
11 Manny Machado 3/3 SD @ MIL 3B
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Total Bases 1.5 +550 84.6 3, 1, 6
2/3
66.7%
15.4% 51.3% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
12 Ozzie Albies 3/3 ATL @ LAD 2B
S vs LHP
ERA 1.90
Total Bases 1.5 +475 82.6 4, 4, 1
2/3
66.7%
17.4% 49.3% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
13 Josue De Paula
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 ATL @ LAD
LHB vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Hits 1.5 +450 81.8 2, 2, 1
2/3
66.7%
18.2% 48.5% N/A
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
14 Tommy Edman 3/3 ATL @ LAD PR
S vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Total Bases 1.5 +400 80.0 0, 3, 2
2/3
66.7%
20.0% 46.7% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
15 Tommy Edman 3/3 ATL @ LAD PR
S vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Hits 1.5 +380 79.2 0, 2, 2
2/3
66.7%
20.8% 45.8% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
16 Xander Bogaerts 3/3 SD @ MIL SS
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Hits 1.5 +380 79.2 1, 2, 2
2/3
66.7%
20.8% 45.8% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
17 Freddy Fermin
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 SD @ MIL C
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Runs Batted In 0.5 +350 77.8 3, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
22.2% 44.4% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
18 Manny Machado 3/3 SD @ MIL 3B
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Hits 1.5 +340 77.3 2, 1, 2
2/3
66.7%
22.7% 43.9% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
19 Freddy Fermin
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 SD @ MIL C
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Hits 0.5 +325 76.5 2, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
23.5% 43.1% 0
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
20 Jackson Merrill 3/3 SD @ MIL CF
LHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Hits 1.5 +320 76.2 0, 2, 2
2/3
66.7%
23.8% 42.9% 1
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
L
21 Teoscar Hernandez
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 ATL @ LAD LF
RHB vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Total Bases 1.5 +300 75.0 5, 0, 2
2/3
66.7%
25.0% 41.7% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
22 Ty France 3/3 SD @ MIL 1B
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Hits 1.5 +235 70.1 1, 2, 2
2/3
66.7%
29.9% 36.8% 2
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
W
23 Ty France 3/3 SD @ MIL 1B
RHB vs RHP
ERA 2.47
Total Bases 1.5 +235 70.1 1, 3, 2
2/3
66.7%
29.9% 36.8% 2
SD @ MIL
4:00 PM ET
Final
W
24 Max Muncy 3/3 ATL @ LAD 3B
LHB vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Total Bases 1.5 +190 65.5 4, 3, 0
2/3
66.7%
34.5% 32.2% 4
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
W
25 Teoscar Hernandez
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 ATL @ LAD LF
RHB vs LHP
ERA 1.47
Hits 0.5 +120 54.5 2, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
45.5% 21.2% 0
ATL @ LAD
8:00 PM ET
Final
L
Showing 1–25 of 40 plays
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