Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

20%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

895

MLB

Top Over

Nick Fortes

H • +1.6 • 100

Top Under

Yandy Diaz

H • -1.0 • 77

Top Fade

Otto Lopez

H • +0.6 • 21

Top 1

Nick Fortes

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.6

Top 2

Willi Castro

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Byron Buxton

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 99 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +2.0

Top 4

Kyle Karros

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5

Troy Johnston

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ STL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Burger	3/3	MIN @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jj Bleday	3/3	NYM @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Joe Mack ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Juan Soto	3/3	NYM @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Higashioka	3/3	MIN @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ STL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Michael Busch	3/3	COL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tj Rumfield	3/3	COL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Wyatt Langford	3/3	MIN @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alec Burleson	3/3	SD @ STL	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Mike Trout	3/3	LAA @ AZ	H	1.0	0.5	1.1	10	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Meyers	3/3	DET @ HOU	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ryan Kreidler	3/3	MIN @ TEX	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ CIN	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Alec Burleson	3/3	SD @ STL	RBI	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Geraldo Perdomo	3/3	LAA @ AZ	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Josh Jung	3/3	MIN @ TEX	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Austin Slater ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bobby Witt Jr.	3/3	KC @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Carson Kelly ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	COL @ CHC	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Mangum	3/3	PIT @ OAK	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Lane Thomas	3/3	KC @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Owen Caissie ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ PHI	H	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ LAD	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luke Keaschall	3/3	MIN @ TEX	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alex Freeland	3/3	TB @ LAD	H	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Braxton Fulford ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	COL @ CHC	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brett Baty	3/3	NYM @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bryce Harper	3/3	MIA @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Curtis Mead ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jj Bleday	3/3	NYM @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Lawrence Butler	3/3	PIT @ OAK	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Marcus Semien	3/3	NYM @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nick Fortes ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brooks Lee	3/3	MIN @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gabriel Moreno	3/3	LAA @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ian Happ	3/3	COL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jordan Walker	3/3	SD @ STL	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Altuve ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Marcus Semien	3/3	NYM @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Max Muncy	3/3	TB @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Riley Greene	3/3	DET @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Seiya Suzuki ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	COL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Zack Gelof	3/3	PIT @ OAK	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Adrian Del Castillo ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	LAA @ AZ	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alejandro Osuna ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ TEX	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Blake Dunn ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ CIN	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Francisco Alvarez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ CIN	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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