Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

1D 7D 14D 30D |

← Sep 13 – Sep 19 →

Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

42.3%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

N/A

No over signal

Top Under

Fernando Tatis Jr.

HR • -1.5 • 82

Top Fade

Esteury Ruiz

H • -1.2 • 32

Top 1

Fernando Tatis Jr.

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 82 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -1.5

Top 2

Otto Lopez

RBI • UNDER
Conf: 74 | Trend: -0.6 | Edge: -2.5

Top 3

Zach Neto

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 68 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -0.5

Top 4

Mike Trout

H • UNDER
Conf: 65 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -2.2

Top 5

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RBI • UNDER
Conf: 59 | Trend: -0.5 | Edge: -1.2

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.3	1.5	82	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-1.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
2	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	RBI	0.0	0.6	2.5	74	UNDER	-0.6	-2.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
3	Zach Neto	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
4	Mike Trout	3/3	MIN @ LAA	H	0.3	0.6	2.5	65	UNDER	-0.3	-2.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
5	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	MIA @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.8	1.5	59	UNDER	-0.5	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	MIA @ SD	H	0.7	1.3	1.5	53	UNDER	-0.6	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Mike Trout	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Vaughn Grissom	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Zach Neto	3/3	MIN @ LAA	RBI	0.0	0.7	0.5	44	UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Vaughn Grissom	3/3	MIN @ LAA	H	0.0	0.5	0.5	39	UNDER	-0.5	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	MIA @ SD	TB	0.0	0.0	4.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-4.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	TB	0.0	0.0	4.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-4.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Mike Trout	3/3	MIN @ LAA	TB	0.0	0.0	2.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	MIA @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Esteury Ruiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	H	0.3	0.3	1.5	32	FADE OVER	+0.0	-1.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ LAA	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Vaughn Grissom	3/3	MIN @ LAA	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Zach Neto	3/3	MIN @ LAA	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Brooks Lee	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Esteury Ruiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Zach Neto	3/3	MIN @ LAA	H	0.7	1.1	0.5	11	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Mike Trout	3/3	MIN @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Vaughn Grissom	3/3	MIN @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Zach Neto	3/3	MIN @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Vaughn Grissom	3/3	MIN @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.6	0.5	2	WATCH	-0.3	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	H	1.3	1.5	1.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ LAA	H	0.3	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Mike Trout	3/3	MIN @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	H	0.3	0.3	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.0	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.0	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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