Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

18.2%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

203

MLB

Top Over

Gavin Sheets

TB • +1.8 • 100

Top Under

Austin Riley

HR • -0.5 • 68

Top Fade

Freddie Freeman

TB • -3.2 • 46

Top 1

Gavin Sheets

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 2

Manny Machado

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 92 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.8

Top 3

Jackson Chourio

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +1.5

Top 4

Ozzie Albies

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 85 | Trend: +1.8 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5

Xander Bogaerts

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 83 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Gavin Sheets ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	TB	3.3	1.0	1.5	100	TOP OVER	+2.3	+1.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	3.3	1.6	1.5	92	TOP OVER	+1.7	+1.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	Jackson Chourio	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	3.0	0.9	1.5	90	TOP OVER	+2.1	+1.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Ozzie Albies	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	3.0	1.2	1.5	85	TOP OVER	+1.8	+1.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	3.0	1.3	1.5	83	TOP OVER	+1.7	+1.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	2.7	0.8	1.5	78	TOP OVER	+1.9	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Austin Riley	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Ronald Acuna Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	SD @ MIL	R	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Freddie Freeman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.9	1.5	62	UNDER	-0.6	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ronald Acuna Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Andy Pages	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Gavin Sheets ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Kyle Tucker	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	2.3	0.7	1.5	58	OVER	+1.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Max Muncy	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	2.3	0.7	1.5	58	OVER	+1.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ethan Salas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Tommy Edman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Ty France	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.7	0.9	0.9	54	OVER	+0.8	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Michael Harris Ii	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.7	1.4	1.4	53	UNDER	-0.7	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.7	1.2	0.7	53	OVER	+0.5	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ha-seong Kim ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	0.0	0.3	1.5	51	UNDER	-0.3	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ozzie Albies	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	1.3	0.6	0.7	49	OVER	+0.7	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Freddie Freeman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.9	49	UNDER	-0.4	-0.9	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Miguel Rojas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Austin Riley	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.6	0.7	48	UNDER	-0.6	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.3	0.7	0.7	47	OVER	+0.6	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Tommy Edman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.3	0.7	0.7	47	OVER	+0.6	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Freddie Freeman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	0.3	0.1	3.5	46	FADE OVER	+0.2	-3.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	2.0	0.6	1.5	46	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Gavin Sheets ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Ozzie Albies	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.5	0.7	45	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ty France	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.9	44	UNDER	-0.2	-0.9	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Dustin Harris	3/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.3	1.1	0.7	42	UNDER	-0.8	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ty France	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	2.0	0.9	1.5	41	OVER	+1.1	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Austin Riley	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	0.3	0.5	1.5	41	UNDER	-0.2	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Cooper Pratt	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Lane Thomas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	0.7	0.2	2.2	39	FADE OVER	+0.5	-1.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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