Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Sep 21 – Oct 4 →

Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

40.5%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

203

MLB

Top Over

Gavin Sheets

TB • +1.8 • 100

Top Under

Austin Riley

HR • -0.5 • 68

Top Fade

Freddie Freeman

TB • -3.2 • 46

Top 1

Gavin Sheets

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 2

Manny Machado

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 92 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.8

Top 3

Jackson Chourio

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +1.5

Top 4

Ozzie Albies

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 85 | Trend: +1.8 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5

Xander Bogaerts

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 83 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
William Contreras ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Andy Pages	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brice Turang	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Tucker	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Matt Olson	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Max Muncy	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
William Contreras ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	1.3	0.6	1.5	11	FADE OVER	+0.7	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.7	0.3	0.9	11	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Joey Ortiz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mauricio Dubon ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.3	1.4	0.9	10	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Austin Riley	3/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dustin Harris	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	1.0	0.9	1.5	8	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ethan Salas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gavin Sheets ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Matt Olson	3/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Max Muncy	3/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ MIL	R	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Fernando Tatis Jr.	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mookie Betts	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ha-seong Kim ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Christian Yelich	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	0.7	0.6	1.0	6	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.3	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Tucker	3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.0	0.7	0.8	4	WATCH	+0.3	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.7	0.9	0.9	4	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	SD @ MIL	H	0.7	0.8	0.9	1	WATCH	-0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	1.3	1.0	1.5	0	WATCH	+0.3	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ethan Salas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Joey Ortiz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SD @ MIL	H	1.0	1.1	0.8	0	WATCH	-0.1	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ozzie Albies	3/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	H	0.7	0.7	0.9	0	WATCH	0.0	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
William Contreras ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ha-seong Kim ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ LAD	R	0.3	0.4	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Miguel Rojas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.0	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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