Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

25%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

210

MLB

Top Over

Max Muncy

TB • +2.2 • 100

Top Under

Austin Riley

HR • -0.5 • 68

Top Fade

Sal Frelick

TB • -1.2 • 26

Top 1

Max Muncy

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.6 | Edge: +2.2

Top 2

Jackson Chourio

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 88 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.3

Top 3

Michael Harris Ii

TB • OVER
Conf: 77 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 4

Gavin Sheets

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 75 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.2

Top 5

Jackson Chourio

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 75 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +1.2

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Tommy Edman	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Andy Pages	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Miguel Rojas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Will Smith	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Andy Pages	3/3	LAD @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ SD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Matt Olson	3/3	LAD @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ SD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	MIL @ SD	TB	1.0	0.7	1.5	11	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Austin Riley	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dustin Harris	3/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mauricio Dubon ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.7	0.3	0.8	8	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Christian Yelich	3/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ethan Salas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Freddie Freeman	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Tucker	3/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Joey Ortiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Miguel Rojas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ha-seong Kim ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Samad Taylor ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Joey Ortiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Kyle Tucker	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Samad Taylor ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	H	0.3	0.6	0.5	2	WATCH	-0.3	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	H	1.0	0.8	0.8	2	WATCH	+0.2	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Enrique Hernandez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.5	1	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.5	1	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Manny Machado	3/3	MIL @ SD	TB	1.3	1.6	1.5	0	WATCH	-0.3	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	H	0.3	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ethan Salas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Gavin Sheets ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIL @ SD	H	0.7	0.5	0.8	0	WATCH	+0.2	-0.1	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	MIL @ SD	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	MIL @ SD	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ozzie Albies	3/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ty France	3/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	MIL @ SD	R	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ronald Acuna Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	LAD @ ATL	H	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ha-seong Kim ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ ATL	R	0.3	0.4	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Max Muncy	3/3	LAD @ ATL	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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