Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Jake Bauers

RBI • +1.3 • 96

Top Under

Jonathan Aranda

TB • -1.5 • 62

Top Fade

Sal Frelick

TB • -1.2 • 23

Top 1

Jake Bauers

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.3

Top 2

David Hamilton

R • TOP OVER
Conf: 77 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.0

Top 3

Brice Turang

R • TOP OVER
Conf: 74 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.0

Top 4

David Hamilton

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 73 | Trend: +1.6 | Edge: +1.2

Top 5

Jonathan Aranda

TB • UNDER
Conf: 62 | Trend: -0.9 | Edge: -1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Cooper Pratt	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.3	0.3	1.5	23	FADE OVER	+0.0	-1.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Christian Yelich	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
William Contreras	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.7	1.1	1.5	4	WATCH	+0.6	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.7	1.1	1.5	4	WATCH	+0.6	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.3	1.7	1.5	0	WATCH	-0.4	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Christian Yelich	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Brice Turang	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.3	1.4	1.5	0	WATCH	-0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
William Contreras	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Christian Yelich	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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