Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Jackson Chourio

H • +1.6 • 100

Top Under

Garrett Mitchell

HR • -0.5 • 55

Top Fade

Liam Hicks

HR • -0.2 • 18

Top 1

Jackson Chourio

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.6

Top 2

William Contreras

H • OVER
Conf: 77 | Trend: +0.7 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Sal Frelick

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 73 | Trend: +1.6 | Edge: +1.2

Top 4

Jackson Chourio

TB • OVER
Conf: 69 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5

Jackson Chourio

R • TOP OVER
Conf: 60 | Trend: +0.8 | Edge: +0.6

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Cooper Pratt	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
David Hamilton	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Liam Hicks ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.0	0.9	1.5	8	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.8	8	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Liam Hicks ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.7	1.1	1.5	4	WATCH	+0.6	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.7	1.2	1.5	2	WATCH	+0.5	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.0	1.0	1.5	2	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.7	1.3	1.5	0	WATCH	+0.4	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.7	0.5	0.8	0	WATCH	+0.2	-0.1	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
David Hamilton	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Christian Yelich	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Christian Yelich	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.8	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	0.6	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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