Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Min Trend Delta

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

635

NFL

Top Over

Drake Maye

PASS YDS • +70.7 • 100

Top Under

Ashton Jeanty

RUSH YDS • -29.2 • 100

Top Fade

Lamar Jackson

PASS ATT • -6.8 • 93

Top 1

Drake Maye

PASS YDS • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +75.6 | Edge: +70.7

Top 2

Ollie Gordon Ii

RUSH YDS • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +62.3 | Edge: +35.3

Top 3

Ashton Jeanty

RUSH YDS • TOP UNDER
Conf: 100 | Trend: -39.0 | Edge: -29.2

Top 4

Bucky Irving

RUSH YDS • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +32.4 | Edge: +35.8

Top 5

Chase Brown

RUSH YDS • TOP UNDER
Conf: 100 | Trend: -28.4 | Edge: -29.9

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Tre Tucker	3/3	LV @ NYJ	REC YDS	80.3	59.6	46.8	93	TOP OVER	+20.7	+33.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Lamar Jackson	3/3	BAL @ BUF	PASS ATT	23.7	9.6	30.5	93	FADE OVER	+14.1	-6.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bhayshul Tuten	3/3	IND @ JAC	RUSH ATT	17.0	10.6	15.1	93	TOP OVER	+6.4	+1.9	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Chase Brown	3/3	TEN @ CIN	RUSH ATT	11.0	14.2	14.9	93	TOP UNDER	-3.2	-3.9	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Trevor Lawrence	3/3	IND @ JAC	PASS YDS	288.0	248.4	239.2	92	TOP OVER	+39.6	+48.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Jordan Mason ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIN @ DET	RUSH YDS	73.7	46.6	49.3	92	TOP OVER	+27.1	+24.4	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Bam Knight	3/3	ARI @ DAL	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Brenton Strange	3/3	IND @ JAC	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Dalton Kincaid	3/3	BAL @ BUF	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Jake Ferguson	3/3	ARI @ DAL	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Rashee Rice ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	KC @ DEN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Wan'dale Robinson	3/3	TEN @ CIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Bo Nix	3/3	KC @ DEN	PASS YDS	150.7	187.3	207.3	91	TOP UNDER	-36.6	-56.6	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Treylon Burks	3/3	PHI @ WSH	REC YDS	46.3	20.5	21.9	91	TOP OVER	+25.8	+24.4	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ MIA	PASS CMP	22.7	14.1	20.1	91	TOP OVER	+8.6	+2.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Dj Moore ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BAL @ BUF	REC YDS	26.0	47.8	53.1	90	TOP UNDER	-21.8	-27.1	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Trevor Lawrence	3/3	IND @ JAC	PASS CMP	22.0	12.0	19.5	90	TOP OVER	+10.0	+2.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Jacoby Brissett	3/3	ARI @ DAL	PASS CMP	26.7	18.3	24.3	89	TOP OVER	+8.4	+2.4	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Tony Pollard	3/3	TEN @ CIN	RUSH ATT	19.3	16.5	15.5	89	TOP OVER	+2.8	+3.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
T.j. Hockenson	3/3	MIN @ DET	REC	6.0	4.0	4.5	89	TOP OVER	+2.0	+1.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Matthew Stafford	3/3	LAC @ LAR	PASS TDS	2.7	2.0	1.5	89	TOP OVER	+0.7	+1.2	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Cade Otton	3/3	ATL @ TB	REC YDS	9.7	32.8	34.7	88	TOP UNDER	-23.1	-25.0	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Bijan Robinson	3/3	ATL @ TB	RUSH ATT	15.3	18.4	18.9	87	TOP UNDER	-3.1	-3.6	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
Jared Goff	3/3	MIN @ DET	PASS CMP	24.3	15.0	22.3	86	TOP OVER	+9.3	+2.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Jared Goff	3/3	MIN @ DET	PASS YDS	328.7	301.8	258.4	85	TOP OVER	+26.9	+70.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ MIA	PASS ATT	32.3	21.4	30.2	85	TOP OVER	+10.9	+2.1	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
Jahan Dotson	3/3	ATL @ TB	REC YDS	49.0	28.2	24.8	84	TOP OVER	+20.8	+24.2	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
Bo Nix	3/3	KC @ DEN	INT	0.0	0.5	0.5	84	TOP UNDER	-0.5	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
Cam Ward	3/3	TEN @ CIN	INT	1.0	0.5	0.5	84	TOP OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
Justin Herbert	3/3	LAC @ LAR	INT	1.3	1.0	0.5	83	TOP OVER	+0.3	+0.8	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
Baker Mayfield ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ TB	PASS CMP	15.0	6.8	19.5	82	FADE OVER	+8.2	-4.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chase Brown	3/3	TEN @ CIN	REC	6.0	4.6	3.5	82	OVER	+1.4	+2.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Tyler Warren ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	IND @ JAC	REC YDS	59.7	34.6	40.5	81	TOP OVER	+25.1	+19.2	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
Kyle Pitts Sr.	3/3	ATL @ TB	REC	5.0	3.5	3.5	80	TOP OVER	+1.5	+1.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
Patrick Mahomes	3/3	KC @ DEN	PASS TDS	0.7	1.3	1.5	80	TOP UNDER	-0.6	-0.8	Down trend plus supportive under value.
George Pickens	3/3	ARI @ DAL	REC	6.3	4.9	4.5	79	OVER	+1.4	+1.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Ja'marr Chase	3/3	TEN @ CIN	REC YDS	55.3	74.8	81.8	78	UNDER	-19.5	-26.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jahmyr Gibbs	3/3	MIN @ DET	RUSH YDS	104.3	78.1	88.0	78	TOP OVER	+26.2	+16.3	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
Demario Douglas	3/3	NE @ MIA	REC YDS	58.0	33.7	40.1	78	TOP OVER	+24.3	+17.9	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
Kirk Cousins	3/3	LV @ NYJ	PASS CMP	22.7	16.1	20.5	78	TOP OVER	+6.6	+2.2	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
Jaylen Warren	3/3	CLE @ PIT	REC YDS	50.3	33.1	22.2	77	OVER	+17.2	+28.1	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Michael Wilson	3/3	ARI @ DAL	REC YDS	39.0	61.5	57.9	77	TOP UNDER	-22.5	-18.9	Big drop in form with clear room below the line.
Baker Mayfield ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ TB	PASS ATT	26.3	10.7	30.7	76	FADE OVER	+15.6	-4.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dj Moore ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BAL @ BUF	REC	2.3	3.4	4.3	76	UNDER	-1.1	-2.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Justin Jefferson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ DET	REC YDS	41.0	54.0	75.8	75	UNDER	-13.0	-34.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Derrick Henry	3/3	BAL @ BUF	RUSH YDS	68.3	104.9	79.5	75	UNDER	-36.6	-11.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Bam Knight	3/3	ARI @ DAL	RUSH YDS	45.3	27.2	19.2	75	OVER	+18.1	+26.1	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Justin Jefferson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ DET	REC	3.3	4.3	6.3	75	UNDER	-1.0	-3.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Demario Douglas	3/3	NE @ MIA	REC	4.7	3.0	3.5	75	TOP OVER	+1.7	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
Adonai Mitchell ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	LV @ NYJ	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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