Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

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Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

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Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

NFL

Top Over

James Cook Iii

RUSH ATT • +4.2 • 100

Top Under

Justin Jefferson

REC YDS • -51.8 • 100

Top Fade

Aaron Jones Sr.

RUSH ATT • +4.2 • 72

Top 1

Justin Jefferson

REC YDS • TOP UNDER
Conf: 100 | Trend: -29.4 | Edge: -51.8

Top 2

James Cook Iii

RUSH ATT • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +4.8 | Edge: +4.2

Top 3

James Cook Iii

ANYTIME TD • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +0.4 | Edge: +0.5

Top 4

Justin Jefferson

REC • TOP UNDER
Conf: 94 | Trend: -1.6 | Edge: -3.5

Top 5

Dawson Knox

ANYTIME TD • UNDER
Conf: 75 | Trend: -0.2 | Edge: -0.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Justin Jefferson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	25.7	55.1	77.5	100	TOP UNDER	-29.4	-51.8	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
2	James Cook Iii	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH ATT	22.7	17.9	18.5	100	TOP OVER	+4.8	+4.2	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	James Cook Iii	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	1.0	0.6	0.5	100	TOP OVER	+0.4	+0.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Justin Jefferson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	3.0	4.6	6.5	94	TOP UNDER	-1.6	-3.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
5	Dawson Knox	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jordan Addison ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ty Johnson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Aaron Jones Sr.	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH ATT	12.7	16.1	8.5	72	FADE UNDER	-3.4	+4.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Jackson Hawes ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.1	0.5	67	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ray Davis	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.1	0.5	67	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ty Johnson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	38.3	25.6	15.2	64	OVER	+12.7	+23.1	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	James Cook Iii	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	28.7	13.9	8.8	61	OVER	+14.8	+19.9	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	T.j. Hockenson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	3.0	3.8	4.5	60	UNDER	-0.8	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jordan Mason ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH ATT	12.7	9.5	11.5	59	TOP OVER	+3.2	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH YDS	50.7	39.6	31.1	56	OVER	+11.1	+19.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Keon Coleman	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.4	0.5	53	OVER	+0.3	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	T.j. Hockenson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.4	0.5	53	OVER	+0.3	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Khalil Shakir	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	59.3	54.6	39.9	47	OVER	+4.7	+19.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	PASS ATT	28.7	20.5	29.8	44	FADE OVER	+8.2	-1.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Dj Moore ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.5	0.5	44	UNDER	-0.2	-0.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ty Johnson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	3.0	2.5	2.0	43	OVER	+0.5	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Aaron Jones Sr.	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH YDS	53.7	63.0	31.7	41	FADE UNDER	-9.3	+22.0	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	PASS CMP	18.7	13.5	20.1	39	FADE OVER	+5.2	-1.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Deejay Dallas	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Keleki Latu	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Myles Price	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Tai Felton	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Dalton Kincaid	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.4	0.5	36	UNDER	-0.1	-0.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	James Cook Iii	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH YDS	95.3	88.5	85.3	35	OVER	+6.8	+10.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Keon Coleman	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	23.3	38.2	26.4	34	UNDER	-14.9	-3.1	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Dawson Knox	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	1.0	1.7	1.5	34	UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Khalil Shakir	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.1	0.5	34	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Jordan Addison ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	46.0	34.9	40.6	33	OVER	+11.1	+5.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	James Cook Iii	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	2.0	1.6	1.5	29	OVER	+0.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Dawson Knox	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	4.0	12.8	8.3	28	UNDER	-8.8	-4.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	T.j. Hockenson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	33.3	37.5	41.0	28	UNDER	-4.2	-7.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.8	0.5	26	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Dj Moore ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	53.3	49.1	47.3	25	OVER	+4.2	+6.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Dalton Kincaid	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	4.0	3.9	3.5	24	OVER	+0.1	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	PASS TDS	1.7	1.5	1.5	24	OVER	+0.2	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jordan Addison ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	3.0	2.1	3.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Khalil Shakir	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	4.0	5.2	3.8	20	FADE UNDER	-1.2	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	PASS YDS	251.3	261.1	232.2	19	FADE UNDER	-9.8	+19.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Dalton Kincaid	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC YDS	43.7	56.0	38.0	19	FADE UNDER	-12.3	+5.7	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Aaron Jones Sr.	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.3	0.5	17	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Jordan Mason ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.3	0.5	17	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Justin Jefferson	3/3	BUF @ MIN	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.3	0.5	17	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Ray Davis	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH YDS	12.0	19.3	5.5	14	FADE UNDER	-7.3	+6.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Aaron Jones Sr.	3/3	BUF @ MIN	REC	2.0	2.3	1.5	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Josh Allen	3/3	BUF @ MIN	RUSH ATT	7.3	8.5	6.9	9	FADE UNDER	-1.2	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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