🔥 Prop Grades

Scoring Factors

Edge vs Line (up to 35 pts) — How far the player's recent average sits above or below the prop line. A large positive edge means the player has been consistently clearing this number.

Hit Rate (up to 25 pts) — Out of the last 5 games, how many times did the player actually beat this line? A 5/5 hit rate earns full marks.

Trend (up to 15 pts) — Is the player trending up or down? Compares the last 3 games against the last 10 to detect momentum shifts.

Role Stability (up to 15 pts) — For NBA, this checks minutes consistency. A starter playing 34+ minutes with low variance is more predictable than someone fluctuating between 20 and 35.

Odds Value (up to 10 pts) — Props with plus-money or short juice are more valuable than heavily juiced lines. Better odds mean better expected value.

Grade Scale

A (85–100) — Elite. Strong edge, near-perfect hit rate, positive trend, stable role. These are the highest-confidence props on the board.

B (75–84) — Strong. Most factors are favorable. Solid plays with data backing them up.

C (65–74) — Average. The numbers lean positive but there may be a weak factor pulling the score down.

D (55–64) — Below average. The edge is thin or the recent track record is inconsistent.

F (below 55) — Weak. The data doesn't support this prop. Proceed with caution or skip entirely.