Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

1D 7D 14D 30D |

← Apr 27 – May 10 →

Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

42.1%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Bobby Witt Jr.

HR • +0.2 • 40

Top Under

Matt Vierling

RBI • -2.5 • 74

Top Fade

Maikel Garcia

H • -2.2 • 45

Top 1

Matt Vierling

RBI • UNDER
Conf: 74 | Trend: -0.6 | Edge: -2.5

Top 2

Carter Jensen

RBI • UNDER
Conf: 61 | Trend: -0.1 | Edge: -1.5

Top 3

Kevin Mcgonigle

H • UNDER
Conf: 57 | Trend: -0.4 | Edge: -1.2

Top 4

Vinnie Pasquantino

H • UNDER
Conf: 55 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -1.1

Top 5

Jac Caglianone

HR • UNDER
Conf: 55 | Trend: -0.2 | Edge: -0.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Matt Vierling	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.0	0.6	2.5	74	UNDER	-0.6	-2.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
2	Carter Jensen	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.0	0.1	1.5	61	UNDER	-0.1	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
3	Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.3	0.7	1.5	57	UNDER	-0.4	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
4	Vinnie Pasquantino	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.7	1.0	1.8	55	UNDER	-0.3	-1.1	Negative trend with market support still in place.
5	Jac Caglianone	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Vinnie Pasquantino	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.3	0.4	1.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Wenceel Perez	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.3	0.4	1.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Isaac Collins ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Maikel Garcia	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Matt Vierling	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Riley Greene	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Spencer Torkelson	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.0	0.8	0.5	47	UNDER	-0.8	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Maikel Garcia	3/3	DET @ KC	H	1.3	1.2	3.5	45	FADE OVER	+0.1	-2.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.0	0.7	0.5	44	UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Matt Vierling	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.7	0.8	1.5	40	UNDER	-0.1	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Bobby Witt Jr.	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.7	0.3	0.5	40	OVER	+0.4	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Maikel Garcia	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	5.0	38	WATCH	0.0	-5.0	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Riley Greene	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	3.8	38	WATCH	0.0	-3.8	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Bobby Witt Jr.	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	3.0	38	WATCH	0.0	-3.0	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Jac Caglianone	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	2.8	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.8	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Matt Vierling	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	2.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Spencer Torkelson	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	2.0	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.0	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Riley Greene	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Wenceel Perez	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Wenceel Perez	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.7	0.7	1.5	38	UNDER	0.0	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ KC	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.5	36	UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.8	33	WATCH	0.0	-1.8	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Vinnie Pasquantino	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.8	33	WATCH	0.0	-1.8	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Wenceel Perez	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.8	33	WATCH	0.0	-1.8	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Bobby Witt Jr.	3/3	DET @ KC	H	2.0	1.2	2.5	31	FADE OVER	+0.8	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Riley Greene	3/3	DET @ KC	H	2.0	1.3	2.5	28	FADE OVER	+0.7	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Carter Jensen	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Isaac Collins ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Nick Loftin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ KC	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Carter Jensen	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Nick Loftin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Wenceel Perez	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Spencer Torkelson	3/3	DET @ KC	H	0.7	0.6	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Jac Caglianone	3/3	DET @ KC	H	1.0	0.8	1.5	15	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Vinnie Pasquantino	3/3	DET @ KC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Isaac Collins ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ KC	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Carter Jensen	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Matt Vierling	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Vinnie Pasquantino	3/3	DET @ KC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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