Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Jun 21 →

Wins

Losses

Win %

66.7%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

211

MLB

Top Over

Kyle Schwarber

RBI • +1.3 • 88

Top Under

Nick Kurtz

HR • -1.5 • 82

Top Fade

Denzer Guzman

HR • -0.8 • 66

Top 1

Kyle Schwarber

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 88 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.3

Top 2

Nick Kurtz

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 82 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -1.5

Top 3

Kyle Schwarber

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 78 | Trend: +0.5 | Edge: +0.5

Top 4

Pete Alonso

H • UNDER
Conf: 75 | Trend: -0.7 | Edge: -2.2

Top 5

Nick Kurtz

RBI • UNDER
Conf: 73 | Trend: -0.6 | Edge: -3.2

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Kyle Schwarber	3/3	NYM @ PHI	RBI	2.0	0.9	0.7	88	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	Nick Kurtz	3/3	LAA @ OAK	HR	0.0	0.3	1.5	82	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-1.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
3	Kyle Schwarber	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	1.0	0.5	0.5	78	TOP OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
4	Pete Alonso	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.3	1.0	2.5	75	UNDER	-0.7	-2.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
5	Nick Kurtz	3/3	LAA @ OAK	RBI	0.3	0.9	3.5	73	UNDER	-0.6	-3.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Nick Kurtz	3/3	LAA @ OAK	H	0.7	1.2	2.5	72	UNDER	-0.5	-1.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Bryce Harper	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	0.8	0.7	71	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Gunnar Henderson	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.8	2.5	70	UNDER	-0.5	-2.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Denzer Guzman	3/3	LAA @ OAK	H	0.7	1.1	2.5	69	UNDER	-0.4	-1.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Samuel Basallo	3/3	BAL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.4	1.5	68	UNDER	-0.4	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Bo Bichette	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Willson Contreras	3/3	BOS @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Zack Gelof ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAA @ OAK	H	1.0	1.3	2.5	66	UNDER	-0.3	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Denzer Guzman	3/3	LAA @ OAK	HR	0.7	0.2	1.5	66	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Juan Soto	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	2.0	1.5	0.7	65	OVER	+0.5	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Colton Cowser	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	1.5	63	UNDER	-0.1	-1.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Francisco Alvarez	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	1.1	0.5	62	OVER	+0.6	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Taylor Ward	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.7	0.8	2.5	61	UNDER	-0.1	-1.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Carson Benge	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Pete Alonso	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.4	1.5	61	UNDER	-0.1	-1.2	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Freddie Freeman	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.7	1.5	57	UNDER	-0.4	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Colton Cowser	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	1.0	0.5	3.5	55	FADE OVER	+0.5	-2.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Alec Bohm	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Ceddanne Rafaela ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BOS @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Coby Mayo	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	J.t. Realmuto	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jarren Duran	3/3	BOS @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Max Muncy	3/3	LAA @ OAK	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Max Muncy	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Shohei Ohtani ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.6	1.5	54	UNDER	-0.3	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Nolan Schanuel	3/3	LAA @ OAK	H	1.0	0.6	2.5	52	FADE OVER	+0.4	-1.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Alec Bohm	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	1.0	0.9	52	OVER	+0.7	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jeremiah Jackson	3/3	BAL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.5	1.5	52	UNDER	-0.2	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Max Muncy	3/3	LAA @ OAK	H	0.3	0.4	1.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brandon Marsh	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Edmundo Sosa ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Francisco Alvarez	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jared Young ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jeremiah Jackson	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Kyle Tucker	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Luis Torrens ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Marcus Semien	3/3	NYM @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Samuel Basallo	3/3	BAL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jacob Wilson	3/3	LAA @ OAK	H	1.3	0.9	0.5	48	OVER	+0.4	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Kyle Schwarber	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	1.4	0.7	48	OVER	+0.3	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jared Young ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ PHI	H	0.0	0.5	0.7	45	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Trea Turner	3/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.7	0.8	1.3	44	OVER	+0.9	+0.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Edmundo Sosa ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ PHI	H	1.3	0.8	0.7	44	OVER	+0.5	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Juan Soto	3/3	NYM @ PHI	RBI	1.3	0.8	0.7	44	OVER	+0.5	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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