Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

398

MLB

Top Over

Ben Rice

TB • +2.5 • 100

Top Under

Jonathan Aranda

HR • -1.0 • 82

Top Fade

Sean Murphy

TB • -2.0 • 57

Top 1

Ben Rice

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.8 | Edge: +2.5

Top 2

Xander Bogaerts

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.8 | Edge: +2.5

Top 3

Brayan Rocchio

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 4

Ben Rice

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5

Brice Turang

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.3

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	0.7	0.2	3.1	50	FADE OVER	+0.5	-2.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	3.0	50	FADE OVER	+0.5	-2.3	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.7	1.3	0.7	50	OVER	+0.4	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Cody Bellinger	3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	1.3	0.6	0.7	49	OVER	+0.7	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Nathaniel Lowe	3/3	CWS @ CLE	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.8	49	OVER	+0.8	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Max Muncy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.5	0.8	49	UNDER	-0.5	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Austin Hays	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Cedric Mullins ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Christian Yelich	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Dominic Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Joey Ortiz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Jose Ramirez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Kyle Teel	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Ryan Mcmahon	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
William Contreras ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.3	0.4	0.9	48	OVER	+0.9	+0.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Chase Meidroth	3/3	CWS @ CLE	H	1.7	1.4	0.7	48	OVER	+0.3	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Michael Harris Ii	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.7	1.4	0.7	48	OVER	+0.3	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Austin Wells	3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.7	47	OVER	+0.6	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Kyle Tucker	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.7	1.2	1.4	47	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Richie Palacios	3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.7	47	OVER	+0.6	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Tommy Edman	3/3	ATL @ LAD	H	1.3	0.7	0.7	47	OVER	+0.6	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Cody Bellinger	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	2.0	0.6	1.5	46	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	2.0	0.6	1.5	46	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jo Adell	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	2.0	0.6	1.5	46	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Randal Grichuk ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	2.0	0.6	1.5	46	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	CWS @ CLE	H	1.3	0.6	0.8	46	OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Andy Pages	3/3	ATL @ LAD	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
Brayan Rocchio ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
Patrick Bailey	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ MIL	TB	2.7	1.3	2.2	45	OVER	+1.4	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Sam Antonacci	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	2.0	0.7	1.5	45	OVER	+1.3	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.5	0.7	45	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.5	0.7	45	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ LAD	H	0.7	1.2	1.3	44	UNDER	-0.5	-0.6	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Sean Murphy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.9	44	UNDER	-0.2	-0.9	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Cooper Pratt	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Freddie Freeman ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Max Muncy ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ LAD	TB	1.0	0.3	2.5	42	FADE OVER	+0.7	-1.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
George Lombard Jr.	3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	0.3	1.1	0.7	42	UNDER	-0.8	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ MIL	RBI	0.3	1.1	0.7	42	UNDER	-0.8	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	H	1.7	0.9	1.3	42	OVER	+0.8	+0.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Andrew Vaughn ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SD @ MIL	H	0.0	0.6	0.5	42	UNDER	-0.6	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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