Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

58.3%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

185

MLB

Top Over

Brayan Rocchio

TB • +1.8 • 100

Top Under

George Lombard Jr.

HR • -0.5 • 73

Top Fade

Junior Caminero

TB • -0.7 • 32

Top 1

Brayan Rocchio

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 2

Ben Rice

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +2.8 | Edge: +1.2

Top 3

Patrick Bailey

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +1.5

Top 4

Liam Hicks

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 78 | Trend: +1.9 | Edge: +1.2

Top 5

Travis Bazzana

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 78 | Trend: +1.9 | Edge: +1.2

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Steven Kwan ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Trent Grisham	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Tristan Peters	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Cedric Mullins ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Spencer Jones	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Taylor Walls ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trent Grisham	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	0.7	0.2	1.5	22	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cedric Mullins ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	1.0	22	WATCH	0.0	-1.0	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
Jo Adell	3/3	CWS @ CLE	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Chase Meidroth	3/3	CWS @ CLE	H	1.3	1.3	1.0	22	OVER	+0.0	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	2.0	0.6	2.1	21	FADE OVER	+1.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3/3	NYY @ TB	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.9	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.6	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Andrew Benintendi ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cody Bellinger	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colson Montgomery	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jo Adell	3/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Junior Caminero	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tristan Peters	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	1.0	0.4	1.5	16	FADE OVER	+0.6	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Steven Kwan ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Kyle Teel	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	1.0	0.5	1.5	15	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Braden Montgomery	3/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.3	0.1	0.8	15	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chase Delauter ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
George Lombard Jr.	3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nathaniel Lowe	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	NYY @ TB	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cedric Mullins ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	0.7	0.3	1.0	14	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.3	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Angel Martinez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Garcia Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nathaniel Lowe	3/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chase Delauter ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cody Bellinger	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colson Montgomery	3/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Ramirez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	CWS @ CLE	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Liam Hicks	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Garcia Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	NYY @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ryan Mcmahon	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Taylor Walls ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trent Grisham	3/3	NYY @ TB	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chase Delauter ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	NYY @ TB	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sam Antonacci	3/3	CWS @ CLE	TB	1.0	0.7	1.5	11	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Angel Martinez ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	CWS @ CLE	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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