Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

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Date

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Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Jose Ramirez

RBI • +1.3 • 83

Top Under

Jo Adell

TB • -1.5 • 69

Top Fade

Chandler Simpson

TB • -1.2 • 26

Top 1

Jose Ramirez

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 83 | Trend: +0.9 | Edge: +1.3

Top 2

Jo Adell

TB • UNDER
Conf: 69 | Trend: -1.3 | Edge: -1.5

Top 3

Brayan Rocchio

TB • UNDER
Conf: 67 | Trend: -1.2 | Edge: -1.5

Top 4

Patrick Bailey

TB • UNDER
Conf: 65 | Trend: -1.1 | Edge: -1.5

Top 5

Liam Hicks

TB • UNDER
Conf: 60 | Trend: -0.8 | Edge: -1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Chase Delauter	3/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jose Ramirez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	TB	0.3	0.1	1.5	26	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ CLE	TB	1.0	1.2	1.5	25	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nathaniel Lowe	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Petey Halpin	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Steven Kwan	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ CLE	TB	0.3	0.3	1.5	23	FADE OVER	+0.0	-1.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chase Delauter	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jo Adell	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	TB	1.3	0.4	1.5	14	FADE OVER	+0.9	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Richie Palacios	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Petey Halpin	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ CLE	TB	1.0	0.9	1.5	8	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ CLE	TB	1.3	0.9	1.5	2	WATCH	+0.4	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ CLE	H	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	0.7	0.9	0.7	0	WATCH	-0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.7	0.5	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.2	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Brayan Rocchio	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.7	0.6	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.1	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios	3/3	TB @ CLE	RBI	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ CLE	H	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	TB @ CLE	R	0.7	0.7	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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