Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Min Trend Delta

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

NFL

Top Over

Drake Maye

PASS YDS • +44.4 • 100

Top Under

A.j. Brown

REC YDS • -44.1 • 100

Top Fade

Caleb Williams

PASS ATT • -2.4 • 62

Top 1

Drake Maye

PASS YDS • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +63.6 | Edge: +44.4

Top 2

A.j. Brown

REC YDS • TOP UNDER
Conf: 100 | Trend: -41.3 | Edge: -44.1

Top 3

A.j. Brown

REC • TOP UNDER
Conf: 100 | Trend: -2.6 | Edge: -2.3

Top 4

Drake Maye

PASS TDS • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.6 | Edge: +1.8

Top 5

A.j. Brown

ANYTIME TD • TOP UNDER
Conf: 92 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -0.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	PASS YDS	292.7	229.1	248.3	100	TOP OVER	+63.6	+44.4	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	A.j. Brown	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	26.0	67.3	70.1	100	TOP UNDER	-41.3	-44.1	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
3	A.j. Brown	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	3.0	5.6	5.3	100	TOP UNDER	-2.6	-2.3	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
4	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	PASS TDS	3.3	1.7	1.5	100	TOP OVER	+1.6	+1.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	A.j. Brown	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
	Jahdae Walker	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.3	0.5	92	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	PASS ATT	34.3	18.3	31.3	91	TOP OVER	+16.0	+3.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Demario Douglas	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	55.3	31.7	38.6	75	TOP OVER	+23.6	+16.7	Big upward move with clear room over the line.
	Cole Kmet	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Kalif Raymond	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Luther Burden Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Treveyon Henderson	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.2	0.5	75	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	PASS CMP	22.0	6.6	20.7	72	OVER	+15.4	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	PASS CMP	22.0	11.7	20.7	72	OVER	+10.3	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Kalif Raymond	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	10.0	38.3	24.8	70	UNDER	-28.3	-14.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Corey Kiner	3/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH YDS	36.3	19.6	14.2	67	OVER	+16.7	+22.1	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	PASS TDS	1.0	1.7	1.5	66	TOP UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	INT	0.3	1.1	0.5	63	UNDER	-0.8	-0.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	PASS ATT	30.3	9.1	32.7	62	FADE OVER	+21.2	-2.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Demario Douglas	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.3	0.5	62	OVER	+0.4	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Hunter Henry	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.3	0.5	62	OVER	+0.4	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Rhamondre Stevenson	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.3	0.5	62	OVER	+0.4	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Hunter Henry	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	51.3	33.7	34.4	60	OVER	+17.6	+16.9	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH ATT	6.3	4.4	4.5	57	TOP OVER	+1.9	+1.8	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Demario Douglas	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	4.3	2.8	3.5	57	OVER	+1.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Kyle Williams	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	34.3	18.1	19.8	54	OVER	+16.2	+14.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Efton Chism Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	33.0	19.3	17.2	53	OVER	+13.7	+15.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH YDS	36.7	24.7	19.7	53	OVER	+12.0	+17.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	D'andre Swift	3/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH YDS	48.3	62.2	61.3	49	UNDER	-13.9	-13.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	D'andre Swift	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	3.3	2.3	2.5	48	OVER	+1.0	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Efton Chism Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	2.3	1.3	1.5	48	OVER	+1.0	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	INT	0.3	0.8	0.5	48	UNDER	-0.5	-0.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Rome Odunze	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	57.7	46.1	44.9	45	OVER	+11.6	+12.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	D'andre Swift	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.7	0.5	0.5	44	OVER	+0.2	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Rhamondre Stevenson	3/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH ATT	13.3	12.9	10.9	43	OVER	+0.4	+2.4	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Hunter Henry	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	4.0	2.8	3.5	43	OVER	+1.2	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Rome Odunze	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	4.0	2.9	3.5	41	OVER	+1.1	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luther Burden Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC YDS	68.3	60.0	57.0	39	OVER	+8.3	+11.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luther Burden Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	5.3	4.8	4.5	39	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Corey Kiner	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Rome Odunze	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.0	0.0	0.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	D'andre Swift	3/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH ATT	13.3	14.5	14.5	34	UNDER	-1.2	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Kalif Raymond	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	2.3	3.5	2.5	34	UNDER	-1.2	-0.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Rhamondre Stevenson	3/3	NE @ CHI	REC	2.0	2.7	2.5	34	UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.1	0.5	34	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Kyle Williams	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.1	0.5	34	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Caleb Williams ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NE @ CHI	PASS YDS	237.3	255.0	243.9	29	UNDER	-17.7	-6.6	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Treveyon Henderson	3/3	NE @ CHI	RUSH ATT	8.3	9.2	6.3	26	FADE UNDER	-0.9	+2.0	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Drake Maye	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.2	0.5	26	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Efton Chism Iii	3/3	NE @ CHI	ANYTIME TD	0.3	0.2	0.5	26	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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