Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Jake Bauers

RBI • +1.3 • 96

Top Under

Jonathan Aranda

TB • -1.5 • 62

Top Fade

Sal Frelick

TB • -1.2 • 23

Top 1

Jake Bauers

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.3

Top 2

David Hamilton

R • TOP OVER
Conf: 77 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.0

Top 3

Brice Turang

R • TOP OVER
Conf: 74 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.0

Top 4

David Hamilton

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 73 | Trend: +1.6 | Edge: +1.2

Top 5

Jonathan Aranda

TB • UNDER
Conf: 62 | Trend: -0.9 | Edge: -1.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Jake Bauers	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	2.0	0.6	0.7	96	TOP OVER	+1.4	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	R	1.7	0.6	0.7	77	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
3	Brice Turang	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	1.7	0.7	0.7	74	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
4	David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	TB	2.7	1.1	1.5	73	TOP OVER	+1.6	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
5	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.0	0.9	1.5	62	UNDER	-0.9	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	William Contreras	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	3.0	2.1	1.5	62	OVER	+0.9	+1.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Garrett Mitchell	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	2.7	1.5	1.5	58	OVER	+1.2	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Cooper Pratt	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	David Hamilton ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	William Contreras	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.7	1.2	0.7	53	OVER	+0.5	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	2.3	1.1	1.5	51	OVER	+1.2	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.3	1.1	0.9	48	UNDER	-0.8	-0.6	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.0	0.6	0.7	48	UNDER	-0.6	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.7	1.6	1.5	46	UNDER	-0.9	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Garrett Mitchell	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.0	0.5	0.7	45	UNDER	-0.5	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.3	0.8	0.7	44	OVER	+0.5	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Junior Caminero	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	2.3	1.7	1.5	41	OVER	+0.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.3	0.4	1.5	39	UNDER	-0.1	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.3	1.0	0.7	39	UNDER	-0.7	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	R	1.0	0.3	0.7	38	OVER	+0.7	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.7	38	UNDER	-0.2	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.0	0.2	0.7	38	UNDER	-0.2	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Sal Frelick ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.7	38	UNDER	-0.2	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.1	0.7	35	UNDER	-0.1	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.1	0.7	35	UNDER	-0.1	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.7	0.6	1.5	32	OVER	+1.1	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.7	0.8	1.5	32	UNDER	-0.1	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	0.3	0.7	0.7	31	UNDER	-0.4	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	William Contreras	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	1.0	0.6	0.7	30	OVER	+0.4	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.7	0.7	27	OVER	+0.3	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Brice Turang	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	TB @ MIL	R	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	TB @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ MIL	H	1.0	0.8	0.7	25	OVER	+0.2	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Liam Hicks	3/3	TB @ MIL	TB	1.0	1.1	1.5	24	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	TB @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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