Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

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Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

MLB

Top Over

Junior Caminero

TB • +1.2 • 58

Top Under

William Contreras

HR • -0.5 • 68

Top Fade

David Hamilton

HR • -0.2 • 18

Top 1

William Contreras

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 68 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -0.5

Top 2

Junior Caminero

TB • OVER
Conf: 58 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.2

Top 3

Ryan Vilade

TB • UNDER
Conf: 55 | Trend: -0.5 | Edge: -1.5

Top 4

Jackson Chourio

HR • UNDER
Conf: 55 | Trend: -0.2 | Edge: -0.5

Top 5

Jonny Deluca

HR • UNDER
Conf: 55 | Trend: -0.2 | Edge: -0.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
2	Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	2.7	1.5	1.5	58	OVER	+1.2	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
3	Ryan Vilade ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.0	0.5	1.5	55	UNDER	-0.5	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
4	Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
5	Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.0	0.4	1.5	53	UNDER	-0.4	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Ryan Vilade ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	David Hamilton	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	2.3	1.3	1.5	48	OVER	+1.0	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Cooper Pratt	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.3	0.9	1.5	48	UNDER	-0.6	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.7	1.4	0.7	48	OVER	+0.3	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Liam Hicks	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.8	44	OVER	+0.6	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ryan Vilade ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.4	0.7	43	UNDER	-0.4	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.3	0.9	0.7	42	OVER	+0.4	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.3	0.9	0.7	42	OVER	+0.4	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	2.0	0.9	1.5	41	OVER	+1.1	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.3	0.8	0.8	41	OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ryan Vilade ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.0	0.3	0.7	40	UNDER	-0.3	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.3	1.0	0.7	39	OVER	+0.3	+0.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.7	1.1	1.5	38	UNDER	-0.4	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	David Hamilton	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	1.0	0.3	0.7	38	OVER	+0.7	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Yandy Diaz ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	R	1.0	0.3	0.7	38	OVER	+0.7	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.0	0.1	0.8	38	UNDER	-0.1	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.7	38	UNDER	-0.2	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonathan Aranda	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.2	0.7	38	UNDER	-0.2	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonny Deluca	3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	1.0	1.8	1.5	36	UNDER	-0.8	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Cooper Pratt	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.3	0.9	0.7	36	UNDER	-0.6	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	1.0	0.4	0.7	35	OVER	+0.6	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ryan Vilade ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.0	0.1	0.7	35	UNDER	-0.1	-0.7	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.8	0.7	34	UNDER	-0.5	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	1.0	0.6	0.7	30	OVER	+0.4	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Junior Caminero	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	1.0	0.6	0.7	30	OVER	+0.4	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	0.3	0.6	0.7	29	UNDER	-0.3	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Garrett Mitchell	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.3	0.6	0.7	29	UNDER	-0.3	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.8	27	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Nick Fortes ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	MIL @ TB	TB	0.0	0.0	1.5	26	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	MIL @ TB	RBI	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ TB	R	0.3	0.5	0.7	26	UNDER	-0.2	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ TB	H	1.0	0.8	0.7	25	OVER	+0.2	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ben Williamson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Christian Yelich	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Cooper Pratt	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
	Taylor Walls	3/3	MIL @ TB	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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