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Strong Plays Record
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← Jul 4 →
Wins
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Losses
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Win %
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Pending
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⭐ Strong Plays
2026-07-04 🧠 Context → 📚 History →
Thresholds (2 of 3): H ≥ 1  ·  HR ≥ 1  ·  RBI ≥ 1  ·  K ≥ 4  ·  SB ≥ 1    Top Plays   Last 3   Last 4   Last 5
Methodology: Strong Plays surfaces player props where recent performance consistently beats the current market line. It pulls each player's last 3 game logs, compares actual stats against the best available sportsbook line, and flags plays with a meaningful edge.

Hit Rate = how many of the last 3 games the player cleared the line (e.g. 3/3 = 100%).
Edge % = hit-rate percentage minus the implied probability from the over odds. A positive edge means the player is clearing the line more often than the market expects.
Actionable plays have both a valid edge and hit rate. Elite plays require ≥ 10% edge and a perfect 3/3 hit rate.
390
Total Found
240
Shown
240
Actionable
21
Elite (10%+ Edge, 3/3)
# Action Player Active Matchup Pos vs Pitcher Stat Line Odds Score Last 3 Games Hit Rate Implied % Edge % Actual Game
126 Christian Vazquez
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 TB @ HOU
RHB vs RHP
Good 84%
ERA 2.78
Hits 0.5 -148 40.3 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
59.7% 7.0% N/A
TB @ HOU
7:10 PM ET
Final
127 Kahlil Watson 3/3 CWS @ CLE TBD Hits 0.5 -150 40.0 1, 0, 2
2/3
66.7%
60.0% 6.7% 0
CHW @ CLE
7:10 PM ET
Final
L
128 Francisco Alvarez 3/3 NYM @ ATL C
RHB vs LHP
Good 86%
ERA 2.27
Hits 0.5 -153 39.5 2, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
60.5% 6.2% 0
NYM @ ATL
8:08 PM ET
Final
L
129 Sung-Mun Song
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 SD @ LAD SS
LHB vs RHP
Ace 99%
ERA 2.49
Hits 0.5 -153 39.5 1, 2, 0
2/3
66.7%
60.5% 6.2% 0
SD @ LAD
10:10 PM ET
Final
L
130 Jesus Rodriguez
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 SF @ COL
RHB vs LHP
ERA 8.87
Hits 0.5 -155 39.2 1, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
60.8% 5.9% N/A
SF @ COL
8:10 PM ET
Final
131 Miles Mastrobuoni
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 TOR @ SEA
LHB vs RHP
ERA 9.00
Hits 0.5 -155 39.2 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
60.8% 5.9% 0
TOR @ SEA
4:10 PM ET
Final
L
132 Rafael Marchan
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 PHI @ KC
S vs RHP
Good 73%
ERA 3.45
Hits 0.5 -155 39.2 0, 1, 1
2/3
66.7%
60.8% 5.9% N/A
PHI @ KC
8:10 PM ET
Final
133 Luis Torrens
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 NYM @ ATL C
RHB vs LHP
Good 86%
ERA 2.27
Hits 0.5 -156 39.1 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
60.9% 5.7% N/A
NYM @ ATL
8:08 PM ET
Final
134 Ryan Waldschmidt
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 MIL @ ARI
RHB vs RHP
Average 66%
ERA 2.98
Hits 0.5 -156 39.1 1, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
60.9% 5.7% N/A
MIL @ ARI
9:40 PM ET
Final
135 Austin Hedges
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 CWS @ CLE C TBD Runs Batted In 1.5 +800 38.9 1, 3, 0
1/3
33.3%
11.1% 22.2% 1
CHW @ CLE
7:10 PM ET
Final
L
136 Miguel Amaya
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 STL @ CHC C
RHB vs RHP
Weak 21%
ERA 3.86
Hits 0.5 -158 38.8 2, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
61.2% 5.4% 0
STL @ CHC
8:08 PM ET
Final
L
137 Nolan Schanuel 3/3 BOS @ LAA
LHB vs RHP
Good 88%
ERA 2.61
Hits 0.5 -158 38.8 0, 2, 1
2/3
66.7%
61.2% 5.4% 0
BOS @ LAA
9:38 PM ET
Final
L
138 James McCann
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 MIL @ ARI C
RHB vs RHP
Average 66%
ERA 2.98
Hits 0.5 -160 38.5 1, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
61.5% 5.1% N/A
MIL @ ARI
9:40 PM ET
Final
139 Jordan Lawlar
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 MIL @ ARI CF
RHB vs RHP
Average 66%
ERA 2.98
Hits 0.5 -160 38.5 2, 2, 0
2/3
66.7%
61.5% 5.1% N/A
MIL @ ARI
9:40 PM ET
Final
140 Julio Rodriguez
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 TOR @ SEA CF
RHB vs RHP
ERA 9.00
Hits 0.5 -160 38.5 0, 3, 1
2/3
66.7%
61.5% 5.1% N/A
TOR @ SEA
4:10 PM ET
Final
141 Justin Crawford 3/3 PHI @ KC CF
LHB vs RHP
Good 73%
ERA 3.45
Hits 0.5 -164 37.9 0, 1, 3
2/3
66.7%
62.1% 4.5% 1
PHI @ KC
8:10 PM ET
Final
W
142 Leody Taveras
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 BAL @ CIN
S vs RHP
ERA 21.60
Hits 0.5 -165 37.7 1, 1, 0
2/3
66.7%
62.3% 4.4% 0
BAL @ CIN
7:10 PM ET
Final
L
143 Munetaka Murakami
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 CWS @ CLE 1B
LHB vs LHP
Average 64%
ERA 2.80
Hits 0.5 -165 37.7 0, 1, 2
2/3
66.7%
62.3% 4.4% N/A
CHW @ CLE
7:10 PM ET
Final
144 Spencer Jones
⚠ Missed 2 of last 3
Missed 2/3 MIN @ NYY RF
LHB vs RHP
ERA 4.43
Hits 0.5 -165 37.7 1, 0, 2
2/3
66.7%
62.3% 4.4% N/A
MIN @ NYY
1:35 PM ET
Final
145 Zach Neto 3/3 BOS @ LAA DH
RHB vs RHP
Good 88%
ERA 2.61
Runs Batted In 1.5 +700 37.5 1, 0, 2
1/3
33.3%
12.5% 20.8% 0
BOS @ LAA
9:38 PM ET
Final
L
146 Graham Pauley
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 MIA @ OAK 3B
LHB vs RHP
Average 39%
ERA 5.10
Hits 0.5 -172 36.8 0, 1, 1
2/3
66.7%
63.2% 3.4% N/A
MIA @ ATH
9:40 PM ET
Final
147 Carter Jensen 3/3 PHI @ KC C
LHB vs LHP
Ace 90%
ERA 3.75
Hits 0.5 -175 36.4 2, 0, 1
2/3
66.7%
63.6% 3.0% 0
PHI @ KC
8:10 PM ET
Final
L
148 Joc Pederson
⚠ Missed 1 of last 3
2/3 DET @ TEX
LHB vs RHP
Weak 12%
ERA 4.60
Hits 0.5 -175 36.4 0, 1, 1
2/3
66.7%
63.6% 3.0% 1
DET @ TEX
4:05 PM ET
Final
W
149 Roman Anthony
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 BOS @ LAA DH
LHB vs LHP
ERA 5.08
Hits 0.5 -175 36.4 0, 1, 1
2/3
66.7%
63.6% 3.0% N/A
BOS @ LAA
9:38 PM ET
Final
150 Will Smith
⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games
Out 3/3 SD @ LAD C
RHB vs LHP
ERA 2.33
Hits 0.5 -175 36.4 0, 1, 1
2/3
66.7%
63.6% 3.0% N/A
SD @ LAD
10:10 PM ET
Final
Showing 126–150 of 240 plays