Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

812

MLB

Top Over

Ildemaro Vargas

RBI • +2.0 • 100

Top Under

Ramon Laureano

H • -1.3 • 86

Top Fade

Alek Thomas

HR • -0.2 • 18

Top 1

Ildemaro Vargas

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +2.0

Top 2

Geraldo Perdomo

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Munetaka Murakami

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.6

Top 4

Ramon Laureano

H • TOP UNDER
Conf: 86 | Trend: -1.0 | Edge: -1.3

Top 5

Colson Montgomery

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 83 | Trend: +0.9 | Edge: +1.3

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Troy Johnston	3/3	SD @ COL	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Wenceel Perez	3/3	MIL @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ SF	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Willson Contreras	3/3	NYY @ BOS	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Willy Adames	3/3	LAD @ SF	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Wilyer Abreu	3/3	NYY @ BOS	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ COL	R	0.0	0.0	0.7	12	WATCH	0.0	-0.7	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jorbit Vivas	3/3	ATL @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.8	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.8	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Carlos Narvaez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ COL	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Amed Rosario	3/3	NYY @ BOS	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bryce Harper	3/3	PHI @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Carson Kelly ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dominic Smith ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ WSH	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Giancarlo Stanton	3/3	NYY @ BOS	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Spencer Horwitz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Daylen Lile	3/3	ATL @ WSH	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Juan Soto ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ NYM	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Randal Grichuk	3/3	NYY @ BOS	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ DET	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Byron Buxton	3/3	MIN @ NYM	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Dominic Smith ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	ATL @ WSH	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Nolan Arenado	3/3	CWS @ AZ	RBI	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ DET	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Austin Wells	3/3	NYY @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brandon Lockridge ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	LAD @ SF	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mark Vientos	3/3	MIN @ NYM	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Matt Wallner ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ NYM	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ronald Acuna Jr.	3/3	ATL @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Wenceel Perez	3/3	MIL @ DET	H	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Wilyer Abreu	3/3	NYY @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Geraldo Perdomo	3/3	CWS @ AZ	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Justin Crawford ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ CHC	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nick Yorke ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	PIT @ TEX	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alec Bohm	3/3	PHI @ CHC	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Blake Perkins ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colt Keith	3/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Corey Seager	3/3	PIT @ TEX	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gleyber Torres	3/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Hyeseong Kim	3/3	LAD @ SF	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ COL	H	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Rengifo	3/3	MIL @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nasim Nunez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	ATL @ WSH	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Rafael Devers	3/3	LAD @ SF	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Spencer Horwitz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ TEX	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dillon Dingler ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ DET	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Josh Jung	3/3	PIT @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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