Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

66.7%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1348

MLB

Top Over

Nick Kurtz

RBI • +2.0 • 100

Top Under

Shea Langeliers

HR • -0.5 • 73

Top Fade

Brenton Doyle

H • -0.8 • 22

Top 1

Nick Kurtz

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +2.0

Top 2

Jj Bleday

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +2.0

Top 3

Teoscar Hernandez

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.8

Top 4

Jake Burger

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 91 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.3

Top 5

Jj Bleday

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +0.9 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Nick Kurtz	3/3	SF @ OAK	RBI	2.7	1.3	0.7	100	TOP OVER	+1.4	+2.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	Jj Bleday	3/3	CIN @ CLE	RBI	2.7	1.5	0.7	96	TOP OVER	+1.2	+2.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	LAD @ LAA	H	2.3	1.2	0.5	95	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Jake Burger	3/3	TEX @ HOU	RBI	2.0	0.8	0.7	91	TOP OVER	+1.2	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	Jj Bleday	3/3	CIN @ CLE	H	2.3	1.4	0.7	90	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Nick Kurtz	3/3	SF @ OAK	HR	1.0	0.3	0.5	89	TOP OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PHI @ PIT	RBI	2.3	1.5	0.7	88	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Ildemaro Vargas	3/3	AZ @ COL	RBI	2.0	0.9	0.7	88	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Cedric Mullins	3/3	MIA @ TB	H	2.0	1.0	0.7	86	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Ildemaro Vargas	3/3	AZ @ COL	H	2.3	1.1	1.3	83	TOP OVER	+1.2	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Paul Goldschmidt ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	NYY @ NYM	H	2.0	1.1	0.7	83	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Spencer Steer	3/3	CIN @ CLE	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Mickey Moniak	3/3	AZ @ COL	RBI	1.7	0.5	0.8	76	TOP OVER	+1.2	+0.9	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Shea Langeliers	3/3	SF @ OAK	HR	0.0	0.4	0.5	73	TOP UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Carter Jensen ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ STL	H	1.7	0.8	0.7	71	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Jake Burger	3/3	TEX @ HOU	H	1.7	0.8	0.7	71	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Yohel Pozo ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ STL	H	1.7	0.7	0.8	71	TOP OVER	+1.0	+0.9	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Casey Schmitt	3/3	SF @ OAK	H	0.0	0.7	1.3	70	UNDER	-0.7	-1.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Bryce Harper	3/3	PHI @ PIT	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Julio Rodriguez	3/3	SD @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Matt Olson	3/3	BOS @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Rafael Devers	3/3	SF @ OAK	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Cj Abrams	3/3	BAL @ WSH	RBI	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Daulton Varsho	3/3	TOR @ DET	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Ozzie Albies	3/3	BOS @ ATL	H	0.0	0.4	1.3	62	UNDER	-0.4	-1.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Maikel Garcia	3/3	KC @ STL	H	0.3	1.1	1.3	61	UNDER	-0.8	-1.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Gavin Sheets	3/3	SD @ SEA	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ryan O'hearn	3/3	PHI @ PIT	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Yordan Alvarez	3/3	TEX @ HOU	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Andrew Benintendi	3/3	CHC @ CWS	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jackson Merrill ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ SEA	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jo Adell	3/3	LAD @ LAA	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ CLE	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Taylor Ward	3/3	BAL @ WSH	H	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Riley Greene	3/3	TOR @ DET	H	2.0	1.7	0.7	59	OVER	+0.3	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Colson Montgomery ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ CWS	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Daylen Lile	3/3	BAL @ WSH	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luis Garcia Jr.	3/3	BAL @ WSH	H	0.3	1.0	1.3	58	UNDER	-0.7	-1.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Luis Rengifo	3/3	MIL @ MIN	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Matt Mclain	3/3	CIN @ CLE	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Leo Jimenez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIA @ TB	H	1.3	0.6	0.5	56	OVER	+0.7	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Alex Bregman	3/3	CHC @ CWS	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Matt Mclain	3/3	CIN @ CLE	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Aaron Judge	3/3	NYY @ NYM	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Alec Bohm	3/3	PHI @ PIT	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Andres Gimenez	3/3	TOR @ DET	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Austin Riley	3/3	BOS @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Braden Shewmake	3/3	TEX @ HOU	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brady House	3/3	BAL @ WSH	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brent Rooker	3/3	SF @ OAK	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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