Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

45.5%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1333

MLB

Top Over

Keibert Ruiz

RBI • +2.0 • 100

Top Under

Colson Montgomery

HR • -0.5 • 73

Top Fade

Willy Adames

H • +0.3 • 19

Top 1

Keibert Ruiz

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +2.0

Top 2

Bo Bichette

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Yandy Diaz

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.5

Top 4

James Wood

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 99 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +2.0

Top 5

Ryan Vilade

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 97 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Gunnar Henderson	3/3	BAL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ivan Herrera	3/3	PIT @ STL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jarren Duran	3/3	BOS @ KC	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3/3	TOR @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ketel Marte	3/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Higashioka ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ COL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Schwarber ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	CIN @ PHI	HR	0.7	0.9	0.5	18	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Michael Busch	3/3	MIL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mike Trout	3/3	OAK @ LAA	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nolan Arenado ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nolan Gorman	3/3	PIT @ STL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Pedro Pages ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	PIT @ STL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ryan Mcmahon	3/3	TOR @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Spencer Torkelson	3/3	CLE @ DET	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Taylor Ward	3/3	BAL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	CLE @ DET	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trea Turner	3/3	CIN @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tyler O'neill ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3/3	TOR @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Weston Wilson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ TB	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brandon Valenzuela ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TOR @ NYY	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Cam Smith	3/3	HOU @ MIN	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Carlos Cortes ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Davis Schneider ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TOR @ NYY	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ SD	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jake Meyers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	HOU @ MIN	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Kyle Higashioka ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ COL	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Kyle Manzardo ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CLE @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Leody Taveras ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BAL @ TB	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Leody Taveras ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	BAL @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Mj Melendez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ WSH	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Mj Melendez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ WSH	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Otto Kemp	3/3	CIN @ PHI	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Otto Kemp	3/3	CIN @ PHI	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Patrick Bailey ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	CLE @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sam Haggerty	3/3	TEX @ COL	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sam Haggerty	3/3	TEX @ COL	H	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Sam Haggerty	3/3	TEX @ COL	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	LAD @ SD	H	0.7	1.3	0.5	16	FADE UNDER	-0.6	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Vaughn Grissom ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Will Smith	3/3	LAD @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Yandy Diaz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Spencer Steer	3/3	CIN @ PHI	H	1.3	1.4	0.7	16	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.6	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Patrick Bailey ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	CLE @ DET	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.8	15	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mickey Gasper	3/3	BOS @ KC	H	1.0	1.2	0.5	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Ivan Herrera	3/3	PIT @ STL	H	1.0	1.4	0.7	14	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Oneil Cruz	3/3	PIT @ STL	H	1.0	1.4	0.7	14	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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