Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

50%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1164

MLB

Top Over

Hunter Goodman

RBI • +2.0 • 100

Top Under

Pete Crow-armstrong

H • -1.4 • 94

Top Fade

Alejandro Kirk

HR • -0.8 • 54

Top 1

Hunter Goodman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.7 | Edge: +2.0

Top 2

Miguel Vargas

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Jacob Gonzalez

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.3

Top 4

Esmerlyn Valdez

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5

Pete Crow-armstrong

H • TOP UNDER
Conf: 94 | Trend: -1.2 | Edge: -1.4

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Brandon Nimmo ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ CLE	H	0.7	1.2	0.6	10	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Dylan Crews	3/3	WSH @ BOS	H	0.7	1.2	0.6	10	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Luke Keaschall	3/3	MIN @ HOU	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.6	9	WATCH	0.0	-0.6	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Anthony Seigler	3/3	WSH @ BOS	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Corbin Carroll	3/3	SF @ AZ	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jake Burger	3/3	TEX @ CLE	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jose Altuve ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIN @ HOU	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Josh Jung	3/3	TEX @ CLE	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Josh Naylor	3/3	LAA @ SEA	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PIT @ PHI	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Taylor Ward	3/3	CWS @ BAL	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Tommy Edman ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ OAK	H	1.0	1.1	0.6	9	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.4	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Colby Thomas	3/3	LAD @ OAK	H	0.3	0.1	0.6	9	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.3	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Andres Gimenez	3/3	NYM @ TOR	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brayan Rocchio	3/3	TEX @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dalton Rushing ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ OAK	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Daylen Lile	3/3	WSH @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
J.p. Crawford	3/3	LAA @ SEA	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jared Young	3/3	NYM @ TOR	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jarren Duran	3/3	WSH @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Javier Sanoja	3/3	MIA @ COL	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Josh Naylor	3/3	LAA @ SEA	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nico Hoerner	3/3	SD @ CHC	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Royce Lewis	3/3	MIN @ HOU	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Masataka Yoshida	3/3	WSH @ BOS	H	1.0	0.9	1.4	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	DET @ NYY	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Myles Straw ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ TOR	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.8	8	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	LAD @ OAK	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Donovan Walton ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	LAA @ SEA	H	0.7	1.1	0.6	7	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Francisco Lindor ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ TOR	H	0.7	1.1	0.6	7	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Heliot Ramos ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ AZ	H	0.7	1.1	0.6	7	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Kazuma Okamoto	3/3	NYM @ TOR	H	0.7	1.1	0.6	7	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Travis Bazzana	3/3	TEX @ CLE	H	0.7	1.1	0.6	7	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.1	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Chase Meidroth	3/3	CWS @ BAL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mickey Moniak	3/3	MIA @ COL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	LAD @ OAK	H	1.3	0.9	1.4	7	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alejandro Kirk ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ TOR	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alika Williams	3/3	LAD @ OAK	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colt Emerson	3/3	LAA @ SEA	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dylan Beavers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ BAL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Elly De La Cruz	3/3	CIN @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Evan Carter ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gabriel Rincones Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Geraldo Perdomo	3/3	SF @ AZ	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	CIN @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Keibert Ruiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	WSH @ BOS	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Konnor Griffin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trea Turner	3/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Esmerlyn Valdez	3/3	PIT @ PHI	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Francisco Alvarez	3/3	NYM @ TOR	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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