Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Jul 1 →

Wins

Losses

Win %

50%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1224

MLB

Top Over

Tommy Edman

RBI • +1.8 • 100

Top Under

Jac Caglianone

HR • -1.3 • 97

Top Fade

Cedric Mullins

HR • -0.6 • 62

Top 1

Tommy Edman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +1.8

Top 2

Javier Sanoja

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 97 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.5

Top 3

Jac Caglianone

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 97 | Trend: -0.6 | Edge: -1.3

Top 4

Esmerlyn Valdez

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.8

Top 5

Justin Crawford

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 92 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Nick Allen	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Pavin Smith	3/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Pedro Pages ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	STL @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Richie Palacios ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ KC	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Daylen Lile	3/3	WSH @ BOS	H	0.7	0.8	1.0	24	UNDER	-0.1	-0.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Heliot Ramos	3/3	SF @ AZ	H	0.7	1.0	0.8	23	UNDER	-0.3	-0.1	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Brandon Marsh	3/3	PIT @ PHI	H	1.3	1.4	0.5	22	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.8	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Bryce Harper	3/3	PIT @ PHI	H	0.7	1.5	0.5	21	FADE UNDER	-0.8	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Alex Bregman	3/3	SD @ CHC	H	1.0	0.7	1.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Isaac Paredes	3/3	MIN @ HOU	H	1.0	1.3	0.5	18	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Mauricio Dubon	3/3	STL @ ATL	H	1.0	1.3	0.5	18	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Ryan Kreidler	3/3	MIN @ HOU	H	1.0	1.3	0.5	18	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jared Triolo	3/3	PIT @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Javier Sanoja	3/3	MIA @ COL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Joey Ortiz	3/3	CIN @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nathan Church	3/3	STL @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mickey Moniak	3/3	MIA @ COL	H	0.3	0.3	1.0	16	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.7	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Amed Rosario	3/3	DET @ NYY	H	1.0	0.8	1.5	15	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dansby Swanson	3/3	SD @ CHC	RBI	1.0	1.2	0.5	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Dylan Crews	3/3	WSH @ BOS	H	1.0	1.2	0.5	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	1.0	1.2	0.5	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Masyn Winn	3/3	STL @ ATL	H	1.0	1.2	0.5	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Tj Rumfield	3/3	MIA @ COL	H	1.3	1.5	0.8	15	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Victor Mesa Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ KC	H	1.0	0.6	1.3	14	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.3	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gabriel Moreno	3/3	SF @ AZ	H	0.7	1.2	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ MIL	RBI	0.7	1.2	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Trevor Larnach	3/3	MIN @ HOU	H	0.7	1.2	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Victor Caratini	3/3	MIN @ HOU	H	0.7	1.2	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.5	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ TOR	H	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jake Mangum ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	H	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Konnor Griffin	3/3	PIT @ PHI	H	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Nicky Lopez	3/3	TEX @ CLE	H	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Royce Lewis	3/3	MIN @ HOU	H	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Ryan Kreidler	3/3	MIN @ HOU	RBI	1.0	1.1	0.5	13	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Joe Mack	3/3	MIA @ COL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ryan Kreidler	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Teoscar Hernandez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ OAK	H	0.7	1.1	0.5	11	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Braden Montgomery	3/3	CWS @ BAL	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Francisco Lindor	3/3	NYM @ TOR	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Nick Gonzales	3/3	PIT @ PHI	H	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Adley Rutschman ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ BAL	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alec Bohm	3/3	PIT @ PHI	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alec Burleson	3/3	STL @ ATL	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alejandro Kirk ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ TOR	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alejandro Osuna	3/3	TEX @ CLE	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alex Bregman	3/3	SD @ CHC	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alex Freeland ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ OAK	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Alika Williams	3/3	LAD @ OAK	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Andres Gimenez	3/3	NYM @ TOR	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Andrew Benintendi ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ BAL	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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