Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Jul 1 →

Wins

Losses

Win %

50%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1224

MLB

Top Over

Tommy Edman

RBI • +1.8 • 100

Top Under

Jac Caglianone

HR • -1.3 • 97

Top Fade

Cedric Mullins

HR • -0.6 • 62

Top 1

Tommy Edman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +1.8

Top 2

Javier Sanoja

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 97 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.5

Top 3

Jac Caglianone

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 97 | Trend: -0.6 | Edge: -1.3

Top 4

Esmerlyn Valdez

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.8

Top 5

Justin Crawford

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 92 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Mickey Moniak	3/3	MIA @ COL	HR	0.3	0.1	1.3	54	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nolan Arenado	3/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.1	1.3	54	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Royce Lewis	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.1	1.3	54	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tyler Callihan	3/3	PIT @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.1	1.3	54	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Zach Mckinstry	3/3	DET @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.1	1.3	54	FADE OVER	+0.2	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Esmerlyn Valdez	3/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.5	53	OVER	+0.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	LAD @ OAK	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.5	53	OVER	+0.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Tyler Callihan	3/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	1.3	0.7	0.5	53	OVER	+0.6	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jac Caglianone ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ KC	RBI	0.0	1.0	0.5	52	UNDER	-1.0	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Kazuma Okamoto ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ TOR	H	0.0	1.0	0.5	52	UNDER	-1.0	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Taylor Ward	3/3	CWS @ BAL	H	0.0	1.0	0.5	52	UNDER	-1.0	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Ty France	3/3	SD @ CHC	RBI	0.0	1.0	0.5	52	UNDER	-1.0	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Heriberto Hernandez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ COL	H	0.3	0.5	1.5	52	UNDER	-0.2	-1.2	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Endy Rodriguez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.1	1.0	52	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.7	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gary Sanchez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CIN @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.1	1.0	52	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.7	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Alika Williams	3/3	LAD @ OAK	H	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Bobby Witt Jr.	3/3	TB @ KC	RBI	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Carter Jensen	3/3	TB @ KC	RBI	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Connor Wong ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	WSH @ BOS	H	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Elly De La Cruz	3/3	CIN @ MIL	H	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Endy Rodriguez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	RBI	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Kerry Carpenter	3/3	DET @ NYY	H	1.3	0.8	0.5	51	OVER	+0.5	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Cam Smith	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.7	0.4	1.3	51	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.6	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Esmerlyn Valdez	3/3	PIT @ PHI	HR	0.7	0.4	1.3	51	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.6	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ CHC	HR	0.7	0.4	1.3	51	FADE OVER	+0.3	-0.6	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tristan Peters	3/3	CWS @ BAL	RBI	0.0	0.9	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.9	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ CHC	H	1.7	1.0	1.0	49	OVER	+0.7	+0.7	Positive trend with market support still in place.
A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ TOR	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ben Rice	3/3	DET @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brandon Lowe ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ PHI	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Caleb Durbin	3/3	WSH @ BOS	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Francisco Lindor	3/3	NYM @ TOR	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gavin Sheets	3/3	SD @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Heliot Ramos	3/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	CIN @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Holliday	3/3	CWS @ BAL	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
James Outman	3/3	DET @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Justin Foscue ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kody Clemens	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Manzardo	3/3	TEX @ CLE	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Arraez	3/3	SF @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nathan Lukes	3/3	NYM @ TOR	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Otto Lopez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ COL	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Pete Alonso	3/3	CWS @ BAL	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	LAD @ OAK	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Willson Contreras	3/3	WSH @ BOS	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yordan Alvarez	3/3	MIN @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.2	1.3	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Caballero	3/3	DET @ NYY	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
Kyle Karros	3/3	MIA @ COL	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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