Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

1D 7D 14D 30D |

← Jul 22 – Aug 4 →

Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

52.1%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1332

MLB

Top Over

Ceddanne Rafaela

HR • +0.8 • 100

Top Under

Luis Arraez

H • -1.0 • 77

Top Fade

Jeremy Pena

H • +1.0 • 31

Top 1

Ceddanne Rafaela

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +0.7 | Edge: +0.8

Top 2

James Mccann

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 97 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +2.3

Top 3

Geraldo Perdomo

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.6

Top 4

Spencer Torkelson

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5

Alec Burleson

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 91 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.3

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Jac Caglianone	3/3	MIN @ KC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ MIL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ke'bryan Hayes ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Michael Harris Ii	3/3	MIA @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nico Hoerner	3/3	LAD @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Pete Alonso	3/3	LAA @ BAL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Rafael Devers	3/3	SF @ TEX	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Richie Palacios	3/3	TB @ COL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ronald Acuna Jr.	3/3	MIA @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ryan Jeffers	3/3	MIN @ KC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Salvador Perez	3/3	MIN @ KC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Seiya Suzuki	3/3	LAD @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Wilyer Abreu	3/3	CWS @ BOS	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Bauers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ MIL	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jake Mangum	3/3	PIT @ MIL	H	1.0	1.3	0.7	11	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Vaughn Grissom	3/3	LAA @ BAL	H	0.7	1.1	0.5	11	FADE UNDER	-0.4	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Jacob Wilson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ CIN	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.5	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jakob Marsee	3/3	MIA @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.8	10	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.5	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kazuma Okamoto	3/3	TOR @ HOU	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Randy Arozarena	3/3	DET @ SEA	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Brandon Marsh	3/3	WSH @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Carter Jensen	3/3	MIN @ KC	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dane Myers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Altuve	3/3	TOR @ HOU	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Ke'bryan Hayes ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	OAK @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	WSH @ PHI	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Torrens ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Matt Mclain	3/3	OAK @ CIN	H	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trent Grisham	3/3	STL @ NYY	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Freddy Fermin ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SD @ AZ	RBI	1.0	0.3	1.0	8	WATCH	+0.7	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Angel Martinez	3/3	NYM @ CLE	H	0.7	0.3	0.8	8	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.1	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Hao-yu Lee ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ SEA	RBI	0.7	1.0	0.5	8	FADE UNDER	-0.3	+0.2	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Brooks Lee	3/3	MIN @ KC	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Elias Diaz	3/3	SF @ TEX	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Javier Sanoja	3/3	MIA @ ATL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jonathan Aranda	3/3	TB @ COL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Liam Hicks ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ ATL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Taylor Walls ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ COL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Willy Adames	3/3	SF @ TEX	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ CLE	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colt Keith	3/3	DET @ SEA	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Drake Baldwin	3/3	MIA @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Mangum	3/3	PIT @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jase Bowen ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ AZ	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jj Bleday	3/3	OAK @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Masyn Winn	3/3	STL @ NYY	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nasim Nunez	3/3	WSH @ PHI	H	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nick Gonzales	3/3	PIT @ MIL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nolan Arenado	3/3	SD @ AZ	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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