Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Aug 13 →

Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

787

MLB

Top Over

Alex Bregman

RBI • +2.6 • 100

Top Under

Jackson Chourio

HR • -0.5 • 73

Top Fade

Denzer Guzman

RBI • -0.7 • 21

Top 1

Alex Bregman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.9 | Edge: +2.6

Top 2

Trent Grisham

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.5 | Edge: +1.6

Top 3

Alex Bregman

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +0.8 | Edge: +0.8

Top 4

Alex Bregman

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 99 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +2.0

Top 5

Trent Grisham

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 98 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.6

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Spencer Horwitz	3/3	PIT @ MIA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Spencer Torkelson	3/3	CLE @ DET	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Taylor Ward ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SEA @ NYY	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Travis Bazzana ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CLE @ DET	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Tyler Heineman ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	TEX @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Vaughn Grissom	3/3	TEX @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Weston Wilson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SEA @ NYY	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Wyatt Langford	3/3	TEX @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Xavier Edwards	3/3	PIT @ MIA	HR	0.0	0.0	0.5	24	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luke Keaschall	3/3	PHI @ MIN	H	0.7	1.0	0.8	23	UNDER	-0.3	-0.1	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Brooks Lee	3/3	PHI @ MIN	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Corey Seager	3/3	TEX @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Elias Diaz	3/3	TEX @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Garrett Mitchell	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jake Mangum	3/3	PIT @ MIA	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Josh Lowe ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ LAA	H	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Trevor Larnach	3/3	PHI @ MIN	RBI	0.3	0.4	0.7	23	UNDER	-0.1	-0.4	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Denzer Guzman	3/3	TEX @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	1.0	22	WATCH	0.0	-1.0	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
Andruw Monasterio	3/3	BOS @ TOR	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Andy Pages	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Caleb Durbin	3/3	BOS @ TOR	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Ezequiel Duran	3/3	TEX @ LAA	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Wilyer Abreu	3/3	BOS @ TOR	H	0.7	1.1	0.7	22	UNDER	-0.4	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Alec Bohm	3/3	PHI @ MIN	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Dansby Swanson	3/3	CHC @ WSH	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jackson Chourio	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Jarren Duran	3/3	BOS @ TOR	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	CLE @ DET	RBI	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PHI @ MIN	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Ryan Mcmahon	3/3	SEA @ NYY	H	1.0	0.9	0.7	22	OVER	+0.1	+0.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
Denzer Guzman	3/3	TEX @ LAA	RBI	0.3	0.1	1.0	21	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.7	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cj Abrams	3/3	CHC @ WSH	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Jake Bauers	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Luis Garcia Jr.	3/3	SEA @ NYY	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Max Clark	3/3	CLE @ DET	H	0.7	1.0	0.7	20	UNDER	-0.3	0.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
Brenton Doyle	3/3	CIN @ CWS	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Charles Mcadoo	3/3	BOS @ TOR	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Christian Yelich ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cj Abrams	3/3	CHC @ WSH	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Colson Montgomery	3/3	CIN @ CWS	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dominic Canzone	3/3	SEA @ NYY	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Dylan Crews	3/3	CHC @ WSH	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Edgar Quero ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CIN @ CWS	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Heriberto Hernandez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ MIA	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jacob Young ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ WSH	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Mangum	3/3	PIT @ MIA	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Tena ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ WSH	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kody Clemens	3/3	PHI @ MIN	HR	0.3	0.1	0.5	18	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Andrew Vaughn	3/3	MIL @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Austin Wells	3/3	SEA @ NYY	R	0.0	0.0	0.8	16	WATCH	0.0	-0.8	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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