Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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← Sep 18 →

Wins

Losses

Win %

75%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

116

MLB

Top Over

Freddie Freeman

H • +1.2 • 83

Top Under

Mookie Betts

RBI • -1.5 • 87

Top Fade

Corbin Carroll

HR • -1.2 • 49

Top 1

Mookie Betts

RBI • TOP UNDER
Conf: 87 | Trend: -0.8 | Edge: -1.5

Top 2

Freddie Freeman

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 83 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.2

Top 3

Mookie Betts

HR • TOP UNDER
Conf: 82 | Trend: -0.3 | Edge: -1.5

Top 4

Teoscar Hernandez

H • UNDER
Conf: 69 | Trend: -0.4 | Edge: -1.8

Top 5

Ben Rice

HR • UNDER
Conf: 68 | Trend: -0.2 | Edge: -1.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Mookie Betts ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.8	1.5	87	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-1.5	Elite down trend, line still too high — strong under setup.
2	Freddie Freeman	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.7	0.6	0.5	83	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
3	Mookie Betts ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.3	1.5	82	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-1.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
4	Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	0.7	1.1	2.5	69	UNDER	-0.4	-1.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
5	Ben Rice	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.2	1.5	68	UNDER	-0.2	-1.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jackson Merrill	3/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	H	0.7	1.5	1.5	66	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.8	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Turner Hill	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.3	0.5	0.5	66	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.8	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Mookie Betts ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.0	1.2	2.5	63	UNDER	-0.2	-1.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Denzer Guzman	3/3	MIN @ LAA	H	1.7	1.1	0.5	62	OVER	+0.6	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Heliot Ramos	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Corbin Carroll	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.2	1.5	49	FADE OVER	+0.1	-1.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Anthony Volpe	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Christian Koss	3/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Denzer Guzman	3/3	MIN @ LAA	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Drew Cavanaugh ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Enrique Hernandez	3/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Jake Cronenworth	3/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Paul Goldschmidt ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.1	0.5	49	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	0.7	1.1	1.5	48	UNDER	-0.4	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Austin Wells ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Jakob Marsee	3/3	MIA @ SD	HR	0.7	0.2	0.5	46	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Jackson Merrill	3/3	MIA @ SD	H	2.0	2.1	0.5	45	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+1.5	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
	Otto Lopez	3/3	MIA @ SD	RBI	0.0	0.7	0.5	44	UNDER	-0.7	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Turner Hill	3/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	1.0	0.3	0.5	44	OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Christian Koss	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.3	1.2	0.5	40	OVER	+0.1	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Gabriel Moreno	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.7	0.3	0.5	40	OVER	+0.4	+0.2	Recent spike in a volatile stat with line still playable.
	Mookie Betts ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	TB	0.0	0.0	5.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-5.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	SF @ LAD	TB	0.0	0.0	4.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-4.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Javier Sanoja	3/3	MIA @ SD	TB	0.0	0.0	2.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	SF @ LAD	TB	0.0	0.0	2.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Xander Bogaerts	3/3	MIA @ SD	TB	0.0	0.0	2.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-2.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Jake Cronenworth	3/3	MIA @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	SF @ LAD	HR	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Mookie Betts ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Xander Bogaerts	3/3	MIA @ SD	R	0.0	0.0	1.5	38	WATCH	0.0	-1.5	Market and trend are not fully aligned yet.
	Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	0.7	0.7	1.5	38	UNDER	0.0	-0.8	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Drew Cavanaugh ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	H	0.0	0.4	0.5	36	UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jakob Marsee	3/3	MIA @ SD	RBI	1.0	0.7	0.5	34	OVER	+0.3	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Will Smith ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.0	0.7	0.5	34	OVER	+0.3	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Alex Call	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	0.0	0.2	0.5	31	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Jonah Cox	3/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	0.7	0.3	1.5	30	FADE OVER	+0.4	-0.8	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
	Jake Cronenworth	3/3	MIA @ SD	H	1.7	1.1	1.5	30	OVER	+0.6	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Nolan Arenado	3/3	NYY @ AZ	HR	0.3	0.5	0.5	30	UNDER	-0.2	-0.2	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Alex Call	3/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.1	0.5	29	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Drew Cavanaugh ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ LAD	RBI	0.0	0.1	0.5	29	UNDER	-0.1	-0.5	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Xavier Edwards ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ SD	H	1.0	0.9	0.5	29	OVER	+0.1	+0.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jonah Cox	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.7	1.2	1.5	27	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Kyle Tucker	3/3	SF @ LAD	H	1.7	1.2	1.5	27	OVER	+0.5	+0.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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