Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1278

MLB

Top Over

Nico Hoerner

RBI • +2.0 • 96

Top Under

Gunnar Henderson

HR • -0.5 • 73

Top Fade

Jo Adell

H • +0.6 • 21

Top 1

Nico Hoerner

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +2.0

Top 2

Jacob Wilson

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 96 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.3

Top 3

Dillon Dingler

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +1.3

Top 4

Sal Stewart

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +0.9 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5

Byron Buxton

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 89 | Trend: +0.7 | Edge: +0.5

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Nico Hoerner	3/3	NYM @ CHC	RBI	2.7	1.5	0.7	96	TOP OVER	+1.2	+2.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	Jacob Wilson	3/3	CWS @ OAK	RBI	2.0	0.6	0.7	96	TOP OVER	+1.4	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	Dillon Dingler ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ BOS	RBI	2.0	0.7	0.7	93	TOP OVER	+1.3	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ MIN	RBI	2.3	1.4	0.7	90	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	Byron Buxton	3/3	CIN @ MIN	HR	1.0	0.3	0.5	89	TOP OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Nolan Arenado	3/3	TOR @ AZ	RBI	2.0	0.9	0.7	88	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Jackson Merrill	3/3	SD @ LAA	H	2.0	1.1	0.7	83	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Hunter Goodman ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	LAD @ COL	HR	1.0	0.4	0.5	83	TOP OVER	+0.6	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Byron Buxton	3/3	CIN @ MIN	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Marcell Ozuna	3/3	TB @ PIT	RBI	1.7	0.5	0.7	79	TOP OVER	+1.2	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Mike Trout	3/3	SD @ LAA	HR	1.0	0.5	0.5	78	TOP OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Sal Stewart	3/3	CIN @ MIN	HR	1.0	0.5	0.5	78	TOP OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	James Mccann ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TOR @ AZ	H	1.7	0.6	0.7	77	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Jac Caglianone	3/3	KC @ NYY	H	1.7	0.7	0.7	74	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Oswald Peraza	3/3	SD @ LAA	H	1.7	0.7	0.7	74	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Gunnar Henderson	3/3	BAL @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.4	0.5	73	TOP UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Chandler Simpson	3/3	TB @ PIT	H	0.3	1.2	1.3	71	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-1.0	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Kyle Manzardo	3/3	BAL @ CLE	H	1.7	0.8	0.7	71	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Brice Turang	3/3	MIL @ MIA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Carter Jensen	3/3	KC @ NYY	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Francisco Alvarez	3/3	NYM @ CHC	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	James Wood	3/3	SF @ WSH	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Mickey Moniak	3/3	LAD @ COL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	William Contreras	3/3	MIL @ MIA	H	2.0	1.4	0.7	67	OVER	+0.6	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Edouard Julien	3/3	LAD @ COL	H	0.0	1.0	0.7	66	TOP UNDER	-1.0	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Trevor Story	3/3	DET @ BOS	RBI	2.0	1.5	0.7	65	OVER	+0.5	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	SF @ WSH	H	2.0	1.1	1.3	64	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.7	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Carson Kelly ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYM @ CHC	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Salvador Perez	3/3	KC @ NYY	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Dillon Dingler ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	DET @ BOS	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jo Adell	3/3	SD @ LAA	RBI	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luis Robert Jr.	3/3	NYM @ CHC	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Matt Wallner	3/3	CIN @ MIN	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jj Wetherholt	3/3	STL @ HOU	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Dominic Smith	3/3	ATL @ PHI	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Dominic Smith	3/3	ATL @ PHI	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Gleyber Torres	3/3	DET @ BOS	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Jake Burger	3/3	TEX @ SEA	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Pete Crow-armstrong	3/3	NYM @ CHC	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Roman Anthony	3/3	DET @ BOS	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Xander Bogaerts	3/3	SD @ LAA	RBI	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Nathan Lukes ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TOR @ AZ	H	0.0	0.2	1.3	57	UNDER	-0.2	-1.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Connor Norby	3/3	MIL @ MIA	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	J.t. Realmuto	3/3	ATL @ PHI	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Randy Arozarena	3/3	TEX @ SEA	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Angel Martinez	3/3	BAL @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brandon Nimmo	3/3	TEX @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brayan Rocchio ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Cal Raleigh	3/3	TEX @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Drake Baldwin	3/3	ATL @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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