Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

60%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1341

MLB

Top Over

Matt Chapman

RBI • +3.2 • 100

Top Under

Ronald Acuna Jr.

HR • -0.5 • 78

Top Fade

Ben Rice

H • +0.5 • 26

Top 1

Matt Chapman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +3.2

Top 2

Jordan Walker

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.9

Top 3

Willson Contreras

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.8

Top 4

Casey Schmitt

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 89 | Trend: +0.7 | Edge: +0.5

Top 5

Bo Bichette

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 88 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.0

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Matt Chapman	3/3	SF @ CHC	RBI	3.7	1.6	0.5	100	TOP OVER	+2.1	+3.2	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	Jordan Walker	3/3	CIN @ STL	H	2.7	1.3	0.8	100	TOP OVER	+1.4	+1.9	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	Willson Contreras	3/3	BOS @ NYY	H	2.3	1.3	0.5	93	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Casey Schmitt	3/3	SF @ CHC	HR	1.0	0.3	0.5	89	TOP OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	Bo Bichette	3/3	NYM @ SD	H	2.3	0.9	1.3	88	TOP OVER	+1.4	+1.0	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Casey Schmitt	3/3	SF @ CHC	H	2.0	1.2	0.5	87	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Willson Contreras	3/3	BOS @ NYY	RBI	1.7	0.5	0.5	86	TOP OVER	+1.2	+1.2	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Adley Rutschman	3/3	BAL @ TOR	RBI	2.0	1.0	0.7	86	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Mauricio Dubon	3/3	PIT @ ATL	H	2.0	1.0	0.7	86	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Blake Dunn	3/3	CIN @ STL	H	2.3	1.3	1.1	84	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Casey Schmitt	3/3	SF @ CHC	RBI	1.7	0.7	0.5	80	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Daniel Susac ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SF @ CHC	H	1.7	0.7	0.5	80	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.2	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Kazuma Okamoto	3/3	BAL @ TOR	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Pete Crow-armstrong	3/3	SF @ CHC	HR	1.0	0.5	0.5	78	TOP OVER	+0.5	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Ronald Acuna Jr.	3/3	PIT @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.5	0.5	78	TOP UNDER	-0.5	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Coby Mayo ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ TOR	RBI	1.7	0.7	0.7	74	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Yandy Diaz	3/3	TB @ MIA	H	2.3	1.5	1.3	73	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Jarren Duran	3/3	BOS @ NYY	HR	0.0	0.4	0.5	73	TOP UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Julio Rodriguez	3/3	SEA @ DET	HR	0.0	0.4	0.5	73	TOP UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Bryce Eldridge	3/3	SF @ CHC	H	2.0	1.5	0.5	71	OVER	+0.5	+1.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Isaac Paredes	3/3	OAK @ HOU	RBI	2.0	1.3	0.7	70	OVER	+0.7	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ozzie Albies	3/3	PIT @ ATL	H	0.0	1.1	0.7	69	TOP UNDER	-1.1	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Carson Benge	3/3	NYM @ SD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Ezequiel Tovar	3/3	MIL @ COL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jj Bleday	3/3	CIN @ STL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Juan Soto	3/3	NYM @ SD	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Kazuma Okamoto	3/3	BAL @ TOR	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Miguel Vargas	3/3	CWS @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Nick Kurtz	3/3	OAK @ HOU	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Oneil Cruz	3/3	PIT @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Yandy Diaz	3/3	TB @ MIA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	A.j. Ewing	3/3	NYM @ SD	H	1.7	0.9	0.5	67	OVER	+0.8	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Wade Meckler	3/3	LAA @ LAD	H	1.7	0.9	0.5	67	OVER	+0.8	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luis Garcia Jr.	3/3	WSH @ AZ	RBI	2.0	1.4	0.7	67	OVER	+0.6	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Chandler Simpson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ MIA	H	0.0	0.6	1.3	67	UNDER	-0.6	-1.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Pete Crow-armstrong	3/3	SF @ CHC	H	2.3	1.8	1.0	67	OVER	+0.5	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Bo Bichette	3/3	NYM @ SD	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.5	66	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.8	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Sal Frelick	3/3	MIL @ COL	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.5	66	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.8	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Alec Bohm	3/3	CWS @ PHI	H	1.7	1.0	0.5	65	OVER	+0.7	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Matt Chapman	3/3	SF @ CHC	H	1.7	1.0	0.5	65	OVER	+0.7	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Gleyber Torres	3/3	SEA @ DET	H	2.0	1.5	0.7	65	OVER	+0.5	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Ezequiel Duran	3/3	CLE @ TEX	H	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Julio Rodriguez	3/3	SEA @ DET	RBI	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Luke Keaschall	3/3	KC @ MIN	H	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Oneil Cruz	3/3	PIT @ ATL	RBI	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Brandon Valenzuela	3/3	BAL @ TOR	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Kyle Schwarber	3/3	CWS @ PHI	H	1.7	1.1	0.5	62	OVER	+0.6	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Willy Adames	3/3	SF @ CHC	RBI	1.7	1.1	0.5	62	OVER	+0.6	+1.2	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Michael Harris Ii ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ ATL	RBI	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Nick Kurtz	3/3	OAK @ HOU	H	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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