Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

40%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1332

MLB

Top Over

Ceddanne Rafaela

HR • +0.8 • 100

Top Under

Luis Arraez

H • -1.0 • 77

Top Fade

Jeremy Pena

H • +1.0 • 31

Top 1

Ceddanne Rafaela

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +0.7 | Edge: +0.8

Top 2

James Mccann

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 97 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +2.3

Top 3

Geraldo Perdomo

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.6

Top 4

Spencer Torkelson

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 95 | Trend: +1.1 | Edge: +1.6

Top 5

Alec Burleson

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 91 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.3

Top 5	Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
1	Ceddanne Rafaela	3/3	CWS @ BOS	HR	1.3	0.6	0.5	100	TOP OVER	+0.7	+0.8	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
2	James Mccann ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ AZ	H	3.0	1.8	0.7	97	TOP OVER	+1.2	+2.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
3	Geraldo Perdomo	3/3	SD @ AZ	H	2.3	1.2	0.7	95	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
4	Spencer Torkelson	3/3	DET @ SEA	H	2.3	1.2	0.7	95	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.6	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
5	Alec Burleson	3/3	STL @ NYY	RBI	2.0	0.8	0.7	91	TOP OVER	+1.2	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Alec Burleson	3/3	STL @ NYY	HR	1.0	0.3	0.5	89	TOP OVER	+0.7	+0.5	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Cal Raleigh	3/3	DET @ SEA	RBI	2.0	0.9	0.7	88	TOP OVER	+1.1	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Cam Smith	3/3	TOR @ HOU	H	2.0	1.0	0.7	86	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Hunter Goodman ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ COL	RBI	2.0	1.0	0.7	86	TOP OVER	+1.0	+1.3	Elite up trend, line still behind — strong over setup.
	Jordan Walker ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	STL @ NYY	H	2.0	1.1	0.7	83	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ AZ	H	2.0	1.1	0.7	83	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Matt Olson	3/3	MIA @ ATL	HR	1.0	0.4	0.5	83	TOP OVER	+0.6	+0.5	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Kyle Karros ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TB @ COL	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Yordan Alvarez	3/3	TOR @ HOU	H	2.0	1.2	0.7	80	TOP OVER	+0.8	+1.3	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Luis Arraez ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	SF @ TEX	H	0.3	1.4	1.3	77	TOP UNDER	-1.1	-1.0	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	LAD @ CHC	H	2.0	1.4	0.5	74	OVER	+0.6	+1.5	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Cj Abrams	3/3	WSH @ PHI	HR	0.0	0.4	0.5	73	TOP UNDER	-0.4	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Cole Young	3/3	DET @ SEA	H	2.3	1.8	0.7	72	OVER	+0.5	+1.6	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Nick Gonzales	3/3	PIT @ MIL	H	0.0	1.2	0.7	72	TOP UNDER	-1.2	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Jake Mccarthy	3/3	TB @ COL	RBI	1.7	0.8	0.7	71	TOP OVER	+0.9	+1.0	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Jung Hoo Lee	3/3	SF @ TEX	H	2.0	1.3	0.7	70	OVER	+0.7	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Daniel Susac	3/3	SF @ TEX	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Dominic Canzone	3/3	DET @ SEA	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Heriberto Hernandez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	James Mccann ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	SD @ AZ	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Joc Pederson	3/3	SF @ TEX	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Marcus Semien	3/3	NYM @ CLE	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Ozzie Albies	3/3	MIA @ ATL	HR	0.0	0.3	0.5	68	TOP UNDER	-0.3	-0.5	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Alec Burleson	3/3	STL @ NYY	H	2.0	1.4	0.7	67	OVER	+0.6	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Bobby Witt Jr. ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	MIN @ KC	H	0.0	0.6	1.3	67	UNDER	-0.6	-1.3	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Manny Machado	3/3	SD @ AZ	H	0.0	1.0	0.7	66	TOP UNDER	-1.0	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Dominic Canzone	3/3	DET @ SEA	RBI	0.0	0.9	0.7	64	TOP UNDER	-0.9	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Chase Delauter	3/3	NYM @ CLE	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Mike Yastrzemski	3/3	MIA @ ATL	RBI	1.3	0.4	0.7	63	TOP OVER	+0.9	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Ceddanne Rafaela	3/3	CWS @ BOS	H	2.3	1.6	1.3	62	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Luke Keaschall	3/3	MIN @ KC	H	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Michael Busch	3/3	LAD @ CHC	RBI	1.7	0.9	0.7	61	OVER	+0.8	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Daniel Susac	3/3	SF @ TEX	RBI	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Luis Lara ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PIT @ MIL	RBI	0.0	0.8	0.7	61	TOP UNDER	-0.8	-0.7	Down trend plus supportive under value.
	Justin Crawford	3/3	WSH @ PHI	RBI	1.3	0.5	0.7	60	TOP OVER	+0.8	+0.6	Up trend plus supportive prop value.
	Steven Kwan	3/3	NYM @ CLE	H	2.0	1.7	0.7	59	OVER	+0.3	+1.3	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Willi Castro	3/3	TB @ COL	H	1.7	1.0	0.7	58	OVER	+0.7	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Nathan Church	3/3	STL @ NYY	RBI	1.3	0.6	0.5	56	OVER	+0.7	+0.8	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Cole Carrigg	3/3	TB @ COL	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Dillon Dingler	3/3	DET @ SEA	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Drake Baldwin	3/3	MIA @ ATL	H	0.3	0.9	1.3	56	UNDER	-0.6	-1.0	Negative trend with market support still in place.
	Francisco Lindor	3/3	NYM @ CLE	H	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Sal Stewart	3/3	OAK @ CIN	RBI	1.7	1.1	0.7	56	OVER	+0.6	+1.0	Positive trend with market support still in place.
	Brandon Lowe	3/3	PIT @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.
	Brice Turang	3/3	PIT @ MIL	HR	0.0	0.2	0.5	55	UNDER	-0.2	-0.5	Recent drop in a volatile stat with under support.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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