Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

1D 7D 14D 30D |

← Jul 16 – Aug 14 →

Wins

Losses

Push

Win %

40.4%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

1230

MLB

Top Over

Alex Bregman

HR • +0.8 • 100

Top Under

Dillon Dingler

H • -1.1 • 79

Top Fade

Jac Caglianone

H • +1.0 • 26

Top 1

Alex Bregman

HR • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +0.8 | Edge: +0.8

Top 2

Alex Bregman

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 99 | Trend: +1.3 | Edge: +2.0

Top 3

Rafael Flores Jr.

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.4 | Edge: +1.2

Top 4

Ketel Marte

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 91 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.3

Top 5

Trent Grisham

RBI • TOP OVER
Conf: 91 | Trend: +1.2 | Edge: +1.3

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Pete Crow-armstrong	3/3	STL @ CHC	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Sal Stewart	3/3	MIA @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Shohei Ohtani	3/3	MIL @ LAD	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tyler Stephenson	3/3	MIA @ CIN	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Brandon Valenzuela ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TOR	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Brandon Valenzuela ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	NYY @ TOR	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Colt Keith	3/3	CWS @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Colton Cowser	3/3	BAL @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Drew Cavanaugh ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	COL @ SF	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Dylan Beavers ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BAL @ TB	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Esmerlyn Valdez	3/3	BOS @ PIT	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Esteury Ruiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ CIN	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Francisco Alvarez	3/3	WSH @ NYM	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Gabriel Arias ⚠ Missed 2 of last 3	Missed 2/3	WSH @ NYM	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Lara	3/3	MIL @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nick Allen	3/3	SEA @ HOU	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nicky Lopez	3/3	TEX @ OAK	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Oswald Peraza ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ LAA	RBI	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Oswald Peraza ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ LAA	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Spencer Horwitz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BOS @ PIT	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	MIL @ LAD	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Zach Mckinstry	3/3	CWS @ DET	R	0.0	0.0	0.5	6	WATCH	0.0	-0.5	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Andruw Monasterio	3/3	BOS @ PIT	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Liam Hicks	3/3	BAL @ TB	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Liam Hicks	3/3	BAL @ TB	RBI	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Masataka Yoshida	3/3	BOS @ PIT	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Carlos Cortes	3/3	TEX @ OAK	H	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Christian Yelich ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIL @ LAD	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Heriberto Hernandez ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ CIN	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	SD @ CLE	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Gary Sanchez	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	1.0	0.7	0.8	4	WATCH	+0.3	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Colton Cowser	3/3	BAL @ TB	H	0.3	0.6	0.5	2	WATCH	-0.3	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Esmerlyn Valdez	3/3	BOS @ PIT	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.5	1	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Esteury Ruiz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	MIA @ CIN	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.5	1	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Gary Sanchez	3/3	MIL @ LAD	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.8	1	WATCH	+0.3	-0.1	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nick Allen	3/3	SEA @ HOU	RBI	0.3	0.1	0.5	1	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Rafael Flores Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BOS @ PIT	H	0.7	0.4	0.8	1	WATCH	+0.3	-0.1	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Lara	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	0.3	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Nicky Lopez	3/3	TEX @ OAK	H	0.3	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	-0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Spencer Horwitz ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BOS @ PIT	H	0.7	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.2	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	MIL @ LAD	H	0.7	0.5	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.2	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Henry Bolte	3/3	TEX @ OAK	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Jacob Wilson ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	TEX @ OAK	H	1.0	1.0	1.3	0	WATCH	0.0	-0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Kevin Mcgonigle	3/3	CWS @ DET	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Rengifo	3/3	SD @ CLE	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Oswald Peraza ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	KC @ LAA	H	0.3	0.2	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Teoscar Hernandez	3/3	MIL @ LAD	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.5	0	WATCH	+0.1	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Andrew Benintendi	3/3	CWS @ DET	RBI	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Ben Rice	3/3	NYY @ TOR	H	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Donovan Walton	3/3	TEX @ OAK	H	0.7	0.4	0.7	0	WATCH	+0.3	0.0	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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