Top Plays

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Top Plays Record

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Wins

Losses

Win %

66.7%

Pending

Date

Sport

Short Window

Baseline

Min Trend Delta

Min Line Edge

Signal

Metric

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Methodology: Top Plays is the cross-reference layer between Trend Plays and Prop Plays. It compares real-stat momentum against current market pricing to surface the best aligned over and under setups.

Trend Delta = short-window real average minus baseline real average.
Line Edge = recent real average minus grouped prop line.
Confidence blends trend strength, line value, and signal alignment into a 0–100 score.

Visible Top Plays

371

MLB

Top Over

Alex Bregman

TB • +2.2 • 100

Top Under

Fernando Tatis Jr.

HR • -1.0 • 68

Top Fade

Xander Bogaerts

TB • -2.0 • 57

Top 1

Alex Bregman

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.6 | Edge: +2.2

Top 2

Jeremy Pena

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 100 | Trend: +2.3 | Edge: +1.8

Top 3

Michael Harris Ii

H • TOP OVER
Conf: 93 | Trend: +1.0 | Edge: +1.6

Top 4

Bryson Stott

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +1.5

Top 5

Lucas Spence

TB • TOP OVER
Conf: 90 | Trend: +2.1 | Edge: +1.5

Player	Active	Matchup	Metric	Recent Avg	Baseline Avg	Line	Confidence	Signal	Trend Delta	Line Edge	Why
Andrew Benintendi ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bryce Harper	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Drake Baldwin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
J.t. Realmuto	3/3	PHI @ ATL	H	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
J.t. Realmuto	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	CHC @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jose Altuve	3/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Manny Machado	3/3	CHC @ SD	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mike Yastrzemski	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nick Sogard	3/3	BOS @ NYY	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Trea Turner	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tristan Peters	3/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yainer Diaz	3/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.3	0.1	0.7	12	FADE OVER	+0.2	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Drake Baldwin ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Edmundo Sosa ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ ATL	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Manny Machado	3/3	CHC @ SD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Seiya Suzuki ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	HR	0.3	0.2	0.5	12	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Braden Montgomery	3/3	CWS @ HOU	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
George Lombard Jr.	3/3	BOS @ NYY	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Isaac Paredes	3/3	CWS @ HOU	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Ty France	3/3	CHC @ SD	H	1.0	1.2	0.7	9	FADE UNDER	-0.2	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
J.t. Realmuto	3/3	PHI @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Mauricio Dubon ⚠ Hasn't played in last 3 games	Out 3/3	PHI @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Tristan Peters	3/3	CWS @ HOU	H	0.3	0.2	0.7	9	FADE OVER	+0.1	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Austin Hays ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bryson Stott	3/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Cam Smith	3/3	CWS @ HOU	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Edmundo Sosa ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	PHI @ ATL	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Isaac Paredes	3/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jackson Merrill ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Kyle Schwarber	3/3	PHI @ ATL	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Lucas Spence	3/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Miguel Vargas ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CWS @ HOU	R	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Wilyer Abreu	3/3	BOS @ NYY	RBI	0.7	0.2	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.5	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Bryson Stott	3/3	PHI @ ATL	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Nico Hoerner	3/3	CHC @ SD	RBI	0.3	0.3	0.7	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.4	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Yordan Alvarez	3/3	CWS @ HOU	HR	0.3	0.3	0.5	7	FADE OVER	+0.0	-0.2	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Jake Cronenworth	3/3	CHC @ SD	H	1.0	1.1	0.7	6	FADE UNDER	-0.1	+0.3	Trend is down, but the line may already be discounted.
Paul Goldschmidt	3/3	BOS @ NYY	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Willson Contreras ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	BOS @ NYY	RBI	0.7	0.3	0.7	5	FADE OVER	+0.4	0.0	Trend is up, but the line may already be inflated.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	RBI	0.7	0.5	0.9	2	WATCH	+0.2	-0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Luis Campusano ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	H	1.0	0.7	0.9	1	WATCH	+0.3	+0.1	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	H	1.3	1.2	1.1	1	WATCH	+0.1	+0.2	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Adley Rutschman	3/3	BOS @ NYY	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Amed Rosario	3/3	BOS @ NYY	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Austin Hays ⚠ Missed 1 of last 3	2/3	CHC @ SD	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.
Bryce Harper	3/3	PHI @ ATL	H	1.0	1.0	0.7	0	WATCH	0.0	+0.3	Both trend delta and line edge are still small.

* Lines averaged from DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. DraftKings and FanDuel set the market — they move first and everyone else follows. BetMGM is large enough to occasionally have a different number, which helps the average.

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